Politics and the General in Supreme Command by Richard Adams

Former CCW Visiting Fellow Richard Adams has published a book based on work undertaken during his fellowship at Oxford.

Politics and the General in Supreme Command: Law Reform and Averting Unjust War will be published by Routledge on 25 November 2024.

Synopsis: This book argues for reform of the convention that, when politicians decide on a course of action, the general in supreme command obeys without question. The entire spread‑out chain of command is unified in the general, who offers the only connection between the military and politics. Offering the sole connection between the military and politics, only the general can turn political directions into military command and capacitate war. Thus, the general has unique opportunity to resist unconscionable direction to launch an unjust war or to conduct or expand war unjustly. This book argues for reform, so the general has the right in law to refuse direction which is lawful, but awful. The legal capacity to refuse would mean the general would be expected to act responsibly, not merely as the unresisting pawn of politics. Such reform, creating legal opportunity for the supreme command to refuse lawful but unconscionable directives, might avert unjust war.

"‘Strike’ the point of the spear of expeditionary warfare" by Rob Johnson

Dr Rob Johnson has written an article as part of a series of Open Briefings to the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) from the Council on Geostrategy. The aim of the series is to analyse ten key questions facing the Defence Review Team, from the vantage point of how the United Kingdom’s adversaries and strategic competitors see us (an approach known as Opposing Forces, or ‘OPFOR’). After holding an expert seminar, the Council on Geostrategy will formally submit the briefings at the end of September.

Dr Rob Johnson returns as Director

We are pleased to welcome Dr Rob Johnson back as Director of CCW. In 2022 Rob was appointed as the Director of the Secretary of State for Defence’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC).  He has been working on secondment to the MOD for the last 2 years. During this time of global instability, Rob has been in a position to significantly influence defence strategy at the highest level.

As Rob returns with new insights and experiences, CCW will evolve its focus on the character and nature of armed conflict towards strategy, statecraft and the impact of technological change. The Centre will rebrand as the Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre (SST-CCW).

We continue to be highly interdisciplinary and will forge new links within the fields of History, Politics, International Relations, Law, Mathematics, Physics, Engineering, Computer Science, Economics, Anthropology, Psychology, and Philosophy while working with our global partners.

SST-CCW would like to thank Lord John Alderdice for his support over the last 2 years, overseeing the Centre as Executive Chairman. Lord Alderdice will step down from this position at the end of June but will continue to support SST-CCW as an Advisor and also as an Honorary Fellow of Pembroke College.

Rob Johnson in the FT: UK military unprepared for ‘conflict of any scale’

Having stepped down as Director of SONAC (Office of Net Assessment and Challenge), Rob Johnson has taken the opportunity to discuss the state of readiness of the UK military.

The article in the Financial Times looks at percentage of GDP spending on defence and how the UK compares militarily to other countries.

Report from the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict (CRIC)

The tenth annual Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict was on the theme of The Changing Character of War and Peace Making. The conference was hosted at Harris Manchester College in September 2023.

The New England Journal of Public Policy has published a Special Issue of papers on The Changing Character of War and Peace Making, based on the presentations at CRIC 2023, which was supported by CCW and the Moisés and Maia Lemlij Foundation. The Guest Editor for the Special Issue was Lord Alderdice.

The Global Humanity for Peace Institute at the University of Wales Trinity St David arranged and paid for the recording, editing and uploading of videos of the presentations at  CRIC 2023 and the videos may be found at - https://www.youtube.com/@cric-oxford

CRIC will be back in September 2024 as an invitation-only event.  The theme this year will be Ending Wars.

"Are we sure China views sea power the same way the West does?" by Doug Robb and Andrew Ward

Cmdr. Doug Robb and Lt.Cdr. Andrew Ward have published an article with Defense News titled"Are we sure China views sea power the same way the West does?" .

This article looks at the fallacy in expecting the strategies of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy to mirror the strategies of the West.

This is the 8th article in Cmdr. Robb’s series exploring ways to strengthen the U.S. Navy’s fleet.

China has yet to prove itself a sea power - Article by Andrew Ward

Lt. Cdr. Andrew Ward has published an article in Royal Society of Asian Affairs looking at the Chinese Navy in the Red Sea. This is a summary of the talk he gave at the Emerging Threats Group on 13 May.

Andrew Ward is a Lieutenant Commander in the Royal Navy and is currently a Hudson Fellow at CCW where he is researching the early Cold War and its relevance for today’s power dynamics at sea.

New book from Sean Andrews: Naval Constabulary Operations and Fisheries Governance

Captain Sean Andrews was a CCW Visiting Research Fellow in Michaelmas term 2023. His lastest book, Naval Constabulary Operations and Fisheries Governance: An Integrated Approach for the Australian Maritime Domain was published in May with Routledge. It is part of the Cass Series on Naval Policy and History

Publisher’s Synopsis: This book offers an analysis of naval constabulary operations, in particular Australian fisheries patrols, and challenges the widely accepted Anglo-American school of maritime thought. In the Indo-Pacific, fisheries and the activities of fishing boats are of increasing strategic importance in Australia’s region – Australia’s Four Oceans. Issues of overfishing, population growth and climate change are placing growing pressure on fish as a resource, and in doing so are making fisheries more significant, and significant on a strategic as opposed to simply an economic or environmental level. When, combined with the growing use of fishing vessels as para-naval forces, it is clear that the activities of fishing vessels, whether fishing or not fishing, are matters of considerable strategic relevance. This book illuminates contemporary seapower challenges, explains and defines maritime security and examines and refines existing theory to advance a set of new or refined concepts to help frame the on-water activities of constabulary operations -- reducing the possibility of on-water miscalculation between states.

‘Competition for access to, and exploitation of, fish stock is an issue with significant geopolitical repercussions over international order. This book is a masterclass of practice-led reflection on the challenges of Australia’s fast changing fishery landscape and the need to develop new concepts and capabilities to address it. Sean Andrews commands the narrative about the 'strategic fish' and delivers his expertise as a 'tactical admiral’ superbly’.'

Alessio Patalano, King’s College London, UK 

Mike Young publishes paper on how personality can predict performance

A paper published by Mike Young, a former CCW Visiting Fellow, is currently the most read article in Military Psychology over the last year. Mike’s paper was published in July 2023.


General intelligence, personality traits, and motivation as predictors of performance, potential, and rate of advancement of Royal Navy senior officers

ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the impact of general intelligence, as well as specific personality traits, and aspects of motivation, on performance, potential, and advancement of senior leaders. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the full population of 381 senior officers in the Royal Navy with an 80% response rate. Performance, potential, and rate of advancement were established direct from the organization’s appraisal system; intelligence, personality traits and motivation were assessed, at the time of the study, using the Verify G+ Test, Occupational Personality Questionnaire, and Motivation Questionnaire. Findings suggest differences in motivation are more important than differences in general intelligence, or personality traits, in predicting assessed performance, potential within, and actual rate of advancement to, senior leadership positions. This is a rare example of a study into very senior leaders, validated against both formal appraisal data and actual rates of advancement. As a consequence of this study the Royal Navy has started to use psychometric-based assessments as part of the selection and development of its most Senior Officers.

Lord Alderdice elected an Honorary Fellow at Pembroke

In March 2024, the Governing Body of Pembroke College elected Lord John Alderdice as an Honorary Fellow.

“I am delighted to have been elected an Honorary Fellow of Pembroke College, especially in this its 400th Anniversary year. I have very much enjoyed working at the College in recent years, especially with colleagues in the Changing Character of War Centre and the Quill Project and I look forward to a long association with this wonderful and historic academic community.”

Lord Alderdice

Book published by Rob Johnson : "NATO and the Russian War in Ukraine"

Dr Robert Johnson’s latest book is now available from Hurst. NATO and the Russian War in Ukraine Strategic Integration and Military Interoperability is edited by Robert Johnson and Janne Haaland Matlary.

The book includes a chapter by Rob Johnson on “Multidomain Integration and Multidomain Operations”

Publisher’s Synopsis
For three decades after the Cold War, NATO member states no longer faced a major threat, and focussed on out-of-area operations. They took the opportunity to reduce defence spending and foster their own national defence industries; interoperability was limited to air and maritime missions on a small scale. The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and war by proxy in eastern Donbass was a wake-up call, while China's creeping seizure and fortification of islands in the South China Sea, as well as its relentless acquisition of Western technologies, similarly alerted the Western leadership to a less benign strategic environment. But the real shift occurred in 2022. China and Russia not only announced their 'unlimited friendship', but made clear their intention to reduce American hegemony by breaking up the NATO alliance and its Pacific equivalents. This volume is the first account of the challenges and solutions for so-called strategic integration in this coercive global situation. The contributors show, thematically and through selected national case-studies, how strategic integration and interoperability are conceived, debated, problematised and resolved. The chapters are written with specific reference to the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has galvanised a new era of integration and alliance cooperation within NATO.

Reviews
‘A global geopolitical scene at once febrile, fragile and fraught with danger demands a work of profound strategic substance and significance: this publication is right on cue. This wonderfully crafted book bristles with resonating and incisive insights, and underscores the status of the editors as doyens of contemporary strategic commentary. I commend it unreservedly and with great enthusiasm.’ — David Ellery, Professor, Honorary Fellow and Trustee, Durham University

‘The Russo-Ukrainian War provided NATO with its most demanding test for decades. This thorough analysis of the alliance’s response shows how this test was passed, at least during the war’s first stage. But it also shows how the conflict led member states to reappraise established practice and explore how they could achieve deeper defence integration.’ — Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London

‘A necessary and thought-provoking book that deserves a wide readership.’ — Sten Rynning, Professor of War Studies and Director, Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark

‘This excellent and authoritative volume exploring the galvanising effect of Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine on efforts to deepen NATO integration could not be more timely.’ — Mats Berdal, Professor of Security and Development, King’s College London

‘First-rate scholars and analysts highlight that increased defence integration and interoperability are key to NATO’s efforts to address the challenges created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US’s continuing pivot to Asia.’ — Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Associate Professor, Royal Danish Defence College

Lord Alderdice joins the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence

On 24th January 2024, the House of Lords agreed a motion appointing our Executive Chairman, Lord Alderdice, and some other peers to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.  His appointment took effect from 31st January 2024 and is very relevant to the work that he has been doing here at The Changing Character of War Centre as well as his many other commitments on issues of violent political conflict.  

Speaking about his appointment, Lord Alderdice said, 

"I am honoured to have the opportunity to serve on this Committee, not only given my long-standing interest in the issues concerned, but also because its work is becoming increasingly important, with the ever more challenging geo-political environment and the mounting defence threats that HM Government and Parliament are having to address."

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/360/international-relations-and-defence-committee/

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony - Published by Dr Will James

Congratulations to Dr Will James whose first book, British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony, is published with Oxford University Press this week. The book can be ordered here (use the code ASFLYQ6 for a 30% discount).

Is the United Kingdom capable of grand strategy? Common wisdom suggests otherwise. Some think it implausible amid the maelstrom of domestic politics, while others believe the UK lacks the necessary autonomy, as a cog in the US-led order.

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony challenges these claims. Grand strategy is the highest level of national security decision-making, encompassing judgements over a state's overarching objectives and interests, as well as its security environment and resource base. Getting these decisions 'right' is vital in moments of geopolitical flux.

Employing several historical case studies between 1940-2003 and marshalling a host of primary sources, the book demonstrates that British politicians and officials have thought in grand strategic terms under American hegemony - even if they do not realise or admit to this. The book also shows that the role of allies in shaping British grand strategy has been overstated. Finally, it highlights the conditions under which domestic political actors can influence grand strategic decision-making. Written for practitioners as well as scholars, the book concludes with several policy recommendations at this inflection point in British history.

Endorsements:

“Dr James has succeeded in producing a lucidly written and erudite study of the good, the bad, and the ugly in British grand strategy from 1940 to 2003. This absorbing book makes a major contribution to debates on the concept of grand strategy and busts some of the myths associated with this important period in recent British history. It will be essential reading for anyone interested in the UK's place in the world. On the evidence of this authoritative and insightful study, James has established himself as one of the brightest rising stars in strategic studies.”
- Professor John Bew, foreign policy adviser to the Prime Minister

“This is a truly brilliant and original analysis of Britain's grand strategy from the Second World War until the early 21st century, the era of American preponderance in the world. Examining three big decisions - the delaying of the 'Second Front' during the Second World War; the withdrawal from 'East of Suez' in the late 1960s with a refocus on Europe thereafter; and the commitment to join the US-led war in Iraq in 2003, it measures them by criteria of proportionality for the appraisal of success and failure.”
- Professor Beatrice Heuser, Professor of International Relations, University of Glasgow

“British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony makes an important contribution to the study of grand strategy. The book offers a clear definition of grand strategy and one coherent and measurable criterion for judging its quality...Through his systematic analysis of British grand strategy before, during, and after its decline from great power status, James enfeebles the long-held misconception that grand strategy is only for great powers, and thus opens a new, diverse, and exciting array of national cases for comparative study.”
- Professor Barry R. Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

“In a book full of insight, William James rehabilitates the concept of grand strategy as a valuable way to think about defence and foreign policy, demonstrates its value in challenging the idea that the UK has been wholly subservient to the US, and then uses it to reassess three key British decisions - on the second front during World War II, the withdrawal from East of Suez in the late 1960s, and joining the invasion of Iraq in 2003.”
- Professor (Emeritus) Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of Strategy: A History

“Will James convincingly challenges the notion that British governments don't 'do' grand strategy or strategy at all. They do - the issue is whether they do it well. Doing it better requires being properly appraised of geopolitical realities, informed by an understanding of history. The book's Conclusion offers some well-founded suggestions to Ministers and officials which are highly relevant to strategy-making in what the Government itself describes as 'a more contested and volatile world'.”
- Peter Watkins, former Director General Security Policy, Ministry of Defence

Will James: Learning how to secure a military competitive edge

Dr William James took part in a podcast with Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman on 'History rhymes: Learning how to secure a military competitive edge' for the Council on Geostrategy on 14 December 2023. Listen online or search “Defence Talks” on your podcast app. The panel explored what it means to have a military competitive edge, how such an edge has displayed itself in history and what we can learn from this.

Dr James was also a panellist on a webinar on 'The UK and the E3' for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank on 8 November 2023. Watch on Youtube

Ukrainian delegation to CCW

CCW was both delighted and honoured to host a delegation this month from the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including its commandant, Professor Colonel Ruslan Hryshchuk DSC, and its chief of research, Colonel Oleksiy Nozdrachov. The discussion covered a range of topics from military innovation to the potential for collaborative research projects. 

Presentation on Civilizational Collapse by Lord Alderdice

Lord John Alderdice travelled to Sante Fe, New Mexico this month to present at the Santa Fe Institute Conference.

Lord Alderdice gave the following presentation on “Signs and models of civilizational collapse” to the 2023 Santa Fe Institute conference on Complexity and Civilization held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, 10th – 11th November 2023.

The fact that civilizations repeatedly come and go was brought home to me some years ago standing atop an old Crusader castle in the country we now call Lebanon.  As I looked down on a large archaeological dig, I could see layers of more than a dozen separate civilizations.  Some I recalled from history, others I knew nothing about, and yet their way of thinking and being-in-the-world had guided many generations before they disappeared.

As I was coming into my teens the apparent stability of the community in Northern Ireland where I lived began to unstitch and I was unpersuaded by much of the political analysis of the time.  I decided to study, analyse, and ultimately to apply some new understandings that I gleaned from a bio-psycho-social approach to psychiatry and to take that into the ‘large group psychology’ of practical politics.  Over a period of years, working with others, leading one of the political parties, and learning from that experience, we were able to build a peace process which resulted in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, and this year we celebrated the 25th anniversary of that Agreement.  It was successful in bringing the killing to an end and facilitating a process of peaceful transition to a new political dispensation which is still emerging.

When I applied the lessons learned in Ireland to analysing the wider global political context, I came to much less positive conclusions.  It seemed to me that we were heading into a third global conflict, and I became quite down about this prospect, not only because it would be grim, but because it could actually be terminal for all human civilization.

However, during 2017, when I was reflecting on the 500th anniversary of Martin Luther publishing his famous 95 Theses, a contributory event to the religious, political, and cultural revolution that we know as the Protestant Reformation, I began to view things a little differently.  I concluded that major paradigm shift probably only occurs in the context of existential threat where the existing perspectives collapse and a wholly new way of thinking can emerge.   While this did not relieve me of my concerns about a third global conflict, on the contrary, that still seems to me to be the direction of travel, it did lead me to the possibility that, if we did not destroy our civilization through nuclear war or climate catastrophe, we would likely be able to make a step change in our way of thinking, relating and governing ourselves.

It seemed to me that three important elements that contributed to the civilizational changes 500 years ago were as follows –

The invention of Gutenberg’s printing press in the 15th century made possible the large scale, inexpensive, distribution of ideas in the vernacular languages of each country.

By this new means people could communicate their profound disenchantment with the corruption of the religious and political elites across Europe and contribute to a rising tide of anger and revolution.

Through that process, the ideas of thinkers and scientists went beyond the political and religious elites who did not understand the new knowledge and what to do about it.  When these ideas were seized upon, the political eruption that resulted did not lead to peace and stability, in fact it resulted in the wars of religion, but enormous progress in almost every aspect of human endeavour was the ultimate consequence. 

Today we have also disruptive technologies which make the communication of challenging ideas even more rapid and widespread. We also have a pervasive disenchantment with the corruption of elites in every area of life, and a clear sense that our leaders do not really understand the significance of the new knowledge that is emerging and what to do about it. 

Five hundred years ago the ‘progressives’ knew what they wanted to do – they wanted to shift the seat of authority from princes and bishops to the society as a whole through democratization.  That proposition, which was clear, rational, and easily communicated, has been followed through across the world, but we it has not solved our problems as well as we might have imagined, and we seem to have reached the limits of what it can achieve.  Instead of leading to ‘the -end of history’, as Francis Fukuyama expected, it has revealed the limitations of the power of democracy, as well as of other kinds of power too, for example, that of military hardware and liberal democratic political organization. 

I do not think that we yet have an alternative agenda to address this dilemma, other than a kind of anarchism that calls for the current structures to be disregarded or pulled down, with the belief that something better will emerge.  Something better may emerge, but as John Gray says in his latest book, ‘The New Leviathans’, published earlier this year, the liberal, democratic international rules-based order and all that has gone with it, may prove to have been a brief interlude, followed by a return to authoritarian regimes maintaining themselves through the law of force, rather than the force of law.  As René Girard pointed out many years ago, the rapid loss of the boundaries of traditional law, religion, and culture – even where they may be viewed as relatively arbitrary – will result in a descent into mimetic violence of all against all, until some new boundaries are created.

My final comment for the moment comes from research work with colleagues on the different forms of individual and societal thinking when faced with the existential threat of societal collapse.  In relatively peaceful stable societies people generally adopt a form of thinking characterised by cost-benefit analysis, based on best socio-economic and power interests – what we might think of as rational actor functioning.  But a different form of thinking arises in threatening contexts, and it uses different parts of the brain.  This thinking operates on a different grammar and syntax of thinking that one might describe as rules-based – ‘right and wrong’ is an example.  When you say to a potential suicide bomber, “But this is a crime and you will be destroyed”, they respond, “You do not understand.  I am doing this for a great cause and to right a greater wrong. My life is not what is important.  It is the cause that is important.”  This cause is described by some of my colleagues as a ‘scared value’ not because it is religious – it may be religious, political, or cultural – but it is a transcendent value which is not susceptible to socio-economic metrics.

Comparative fMRI scans show that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, inferior frontal gyrus and parietal cortex are implicated in calculating costs and consequences – what one might call rational actor function – and this is seen in individuals in relatively stable contexts.  Increased activity is seen in the left temporoparietal junction and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, associated with semantic rule retrieval in what we might call devoted actors – those who are prepared to sacrifice themselves for their cause.  They are operating under rules of right and wrong as they see it, whatever the consequences.  These differences are therefore not just a matter of psychological choice; we can see that different parts of the brain are operating.

How could such a difference convey evolutionary advantage and be maintained when the well-being of the individual is not a primary driver?  There are many situations where the sacrifice of the individual is necessary for the survival of the group, and the more we think about and explore this notion, the more evidence we find of such forms of behaviour, particularly those that involve the fusion of individuals with their group, rather than enhancing individual difference.   This is a fundamental challenge to the trajectory of thinking, culture, and political development of recent times based, as it is supposed, on Enlightenment ideas.  It seems to me that as the interest, well-being and wishes of the individual are pushed beyond a certain point, there comes a major disjunction between those phenomena that serve the well-being of the individual and those that serve the successful functioning at of the large group.  A simple example is that it is increasingly difficult to enlist young people in the armed forces in Western societies, especially where there is a risk of engagement in war.  This is not because of a shortage of money but is a result of individuals not wanting to risk their personal well-being for the that of the group.   The change has been masked by a focus on advanced military technology, much of which does not require ‘boots on the ground’ but a combination of the massive costs of some of these weapon and defence systems is reaching a limit, and does not address the many other domestic tasks that the military can be called on to perform in the context, not of war, but of pandemic, natural disaster and civil unrest.  The interests of the individual are coming into ever greater conflict with the interests of society.  This may well be a key indicator that presages the end of the civilization based on the later interpretations of the Enlightenment as we have understood it and require a new perspective.

The reason that I am here at SFI because I have concluded that a bio-psycho-social approach to complexity may perhaps offer us such a new perspective.

"What is the British Army for?" by Will James

Dr Will James has written an article for Engelsberg Ideas

Recent debates over the British Army tend to fixate on equipment – from procurement headaches to its state of readiness after donating tanks to Ukraine – but the real matter to resolve is its role. The war in Eastern Europe may offer political leaders the space to answer the key question: what does the government expect of its soldiers?