Job Opportunity: Strategic Net Assessment Research Fellow

SST-CCW Job Opportunity:
Strategic Net Assessment Research Fellow

Salary: Grade 8, £46,000 per annum
Contract: Full-time, fixed term for 2 years 
Start date: 2 June 2025, or as soon as possible thereafter 
Reports to: SST-CCW Centre Director

The Strategy, Statecraft & Technology: Changing Character of War Centre (SST-CCW) at Pembroke College, Oxford, invites applications for the role of Strategic Net Assessment Research Fellow. This is an exciting opportunity for a talented researcher to contribute to interdisciplinary scholarship in strategic net assessment within an internationally recognised research centre.

The post-holder will conduct high-level research in strategic net assessment, contribute to the Centre's research outputs, support visiting fellows, and engage with academic and practitioner communities worldwide. The successful candidate will have a doctorate in a related field and strong research skills, with experience in engaging both academic and practitioner audiences.

For further details of the role please click the Further Particulars below.

How to Apply
Applications should be sent to elizabeth.robson@pmb.ox.ac.uk by 9am on 4 April 2025 and include:

• A cover letter detailing how your experience meets the selection criteria;

• A 2,000-word statement outlining current and future research, including what work you envisage doing in the Centre;

• A detailed CV;

• The details of two references who will be contacted after the interview stage.

Shortlisted candidates will be required to present a summary of their research.

For enquiries about the role, please contact Dr Rob Johnson, SST-CCW Director at: robert.johnson@pmb.ox.ac.uk

Data Protection

All data supplied by candidates will be used only for the purpose of determining their suitability for the post, following the principles of the Data Protection Act 2018.

 Equal Opportunities Monitoring Form - The completion of this form is voluntary, but appreciated.

 Policy statement on the recruitment of ex-offenders

Pembroke College is an equal opportunities employer. It welcomes diversity amongst its staff and students and all reasonable adjustments will be made to the recruitment process, working arrangements and/or environment to accommodate applicants with any form of disability.

Please let us know if you believe there are any reasonable adjustments we should be making to assist you with your application. If you feel that you have a disability which may affect your application, please let us know. Please also let us know of any reasonable adjustments that we would need to make for you to attend an interview. 

What Gazans want by Scott Atran

CCW research fellow Scott Atran has co-authored an article with Ángel Gómez for Foreign Affairs. “What Gazans Want: A Brutal War Has Weakened Support for Hamas—but Made Peace With Israel Harder” is available free online.

Politics and the General in Supreme Command by Richard Adams

Former CCW Visiting Fellow Richard Adams has published a book based on work undertaken during his fellowship at Oxford.

Politics and the General in Supreme Command: Law Reform and Averting Unjust War will be published by Routledge on 25 November 2024.

Synopsis: This book argues for reform of the convention that, when politicians decide on a course of action, the general in supreme command obeys without question. The entire spread‑out chain of command is unified in the general, who offers the only connection between the military and politics. Offering the sole connection between the military and politics, only the general can turn political directions into military command and capacitate war. Thus, the general has unique opportunity to resist unconscionable direction to launch an unjust war or to conduct or expand war unjustly. This book argues for reform, so the general has the right in law to refuse direction which is lawful, but awful. The legal capacity to refuse would mean the general would be expected to act responsibly, not merely as the unresisting pawn of politics. Such reform, creating legal opportunity for the supreme command to refuse lawful but unconscionable directives, might avert unjust war.

"‘Strike’ the point of the spear of expeditionary warfare" by Rob Johnson

Dr Rob Johnson has written an article as part of a series of Open Briefings to the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) from the Council on Geostrategy. The aim of the series is to analyse ten key questions facing the Defence Review Team, from the vantage point of how the United Kingdom’s adversaries and strategic competitors see us (an approach known as Opposing Forces, or ‘OPFOR’). After holding an expert seminar, the Council on Geostrategy will formally submit the briefings at the end of September.

Rob Johnson Article: "Money alone won’t solve Britain’s defence gap"

Dr Rob Johnson has published an article in Britain’s World, the Council on Geostrategy’s online magazine.

The article titled “Money alone won’t solve Britain’s defence gap” is free to read online.

Dr Rob Johnson returns as Director

We are pleased to welcome Dr Rob Johnson back as Director of CCW. In 2022 Rob was appointed as the Director of the Secretary of State for Defence’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC).  He has been working on secondment to the MOD for the last 2 years. During this time of global instability, Rob has been in a position to significantly influence defence strategy at the highest level.

As Rob returns with new insights and experiences, CCW will evolve its focus on the character and nature of armed conflict towards strategy, statecraft and the impact of technological change. The Centre will rebrand as the Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre (SST-CCW).

We continue to be highly interdisciplinary and will forge new links within the fields of History, Politics, International Relations, Law, Mathematics, Physics, Engineering, Computer Science, Economics, Anthropology, Psychology, and Philosophy while working with our global partners.

SST-CCW would like to thank Lord John Alderdice for his support over the last 2 years, overseeing the Centre as Executive Chairman. Lord Alderdice will step down from this position at the end of June but will continue to support SST-CCW as an Advisor and also as an Honorary Fellow of Pembroke College.

Rob Johnson in the FT: UK military unprepared for ‘conflict of any scale’

Having stepped down as Director of SONAC (Office of Net Assessment and Challenge), Rob Johnson has taken the opportunity to discuss the state of readiness of the UK military.

The article in the Financial Times looks at percentage of GDP spending on defence and how the UK compares militarily to other countries.

Report from the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict (CRIC)

The tenth annual Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict was on the theme of The Changing Character of War and Peace Making. The conference was hosted at Harris Manchester College in September 2023.

The New England Journal of Public Policy has published a Special Issue of papers on The Changing Character of War and Peace Making, based on the presentations at CRIC 2023, which was supported by CCW and the Moisés and Maia Lemlij Foundation. The Guest Editor for the Special Issue was Lord Alderdice.

The Global Humanity for Peace Institute at the University of Wales Trinity St David arranged and paid for the recording, editing and uploading of videos of the presentations at  CRIC 2023 and the videos may be found at - https://www.youtube.com/@cric-oxford

CRIC will be back in September 2024 as an invitation-only event.  The theme this year will be Ending Wars.

"Are we sure China views sea power the same way the West does?" by Doug Robb and Andrew Ward

Cmdr. Doug Robb and Lt.Cdr. Andrew Ward have published an article with Defense News titled"Are we sure China views sea power the same way the West does?" .

This article looks at the fallacy in expecting the strategies of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy to mirror the strategies of the West.

This is the 8th article in Cmdr. Robb’s series exploring ways to strengthen the U.S. Navy’s fleet.

China has yet to prove itself a sea power - Article by Andrew Ward

Lt. Cdr. Andrew Ward has published an article in Royal Society of Asian Affairs looking at the Chinese Navy in the Red Sea. This is a summary of the talk he gave at the Emerging Threats Group on 13 May.

Andrew Ward is a Lieutenant Commander in the Royal Navy and is currently a Hudson Fellow at CCW where he is researching the early Cold War and its relevance for today’s power dynamics at sea.

New book from Sean Andrews: Naval Constabulary Operations and Fisheries Governance

Captain Sean Andrews was a CCW Visiting Research Fellow in Michaelmas term 2023. His lastest book, Naval Constabulary Operations and Fisheries Governance: An Integrated Approach for the Australian Maritime Domain was published in May with Routledge. It is part of the Cass Series on Naval Policy and History

Publisher’s Synopsis: This book offers an analysis of naval constabulary operations, in particular Australian fisheries patrols, and challenges the widely accepted Anglo-American school of maritime thought. In the Indo-Pacific, fisheries and the activities of fishing boats are of increasing strategic importance in Australia’s region – Australia’s Four Oceans. Issues of overfishing, population growth and climate change are placing growing pressure on fish as a resource, and in doing so are making fisheries more significant, and significant on a strategic as opposed to simply an economic or environmental level. When, combined with the growing use of fishing vessels as para-naval forces, it is clear that the activities of fishing vessels, whether fishing or not fishing, are matters of considerable strategic relevance. This book illuminates contemporary seapower challenges, explains and defines maritime security and examines and refines existing theory to advance a set of new or refined concepts to help frame the on-water activities of constabulary operations -- reducing the possibility of on-water miscalculation between states.

‘Competition for access to, and exploitation of, fish stock is an issue with significant geopolitical repercussions over international order. This book is a masterclass of practice-led reflection on the challenges of Australia’s fast changing fishery landscape and the need to develop new concepts and capabilities to address it. Sean Andrews commands the narrative about the 'strategic fish' and delivers his expertise as a 'tactical admiral’ superbly’.'

Alessio Patalano, King’s College London, UK 

Mike Young publishes paper on how personality can predict performance

A paper published by Mike Young, a former CCW Visiting Fellow, is currently the most read article in Military Psychology over the last year. Mike’s paper was published in July 2023.

---

General intelligence, personality traits, and motivation as predictors of performance, potential, and rate of advancement of Royal Navy senior officers

ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the impact of general intelligence, as well as specific personality traits, and aspects of motivation, on performance, potential, and advancement of senior leaders. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the full population of 381 senior officers in the Royal Navy with an 80% response rate. Performance, potential, and rate of advancement were established direct from the organization’s appraisal system; intelligence, personality traits and motivation were assessed, at the time of the study, using the Verify G+ Test, Occupational Personality Questionnaire, and Motivation Questionnaire. Findings suggest differences in motivation are more important than differences in general intelligence, or personality traits, in predicting assessed performance, potential within, and actual rate of advancement to, senior leadership positions. This is a rare example of a study into very senior leaders, validated against both formal appraisal data and actual rates of advancement. As a consequence of this study the Royal Navy has started to use psychometric-based assessments as part of the selection and development of its most Senior Officers.

Tony Blair and the tragedy of liberal interventionism by Will James

Dr William James has published an essay with Engelsberg Ideas on the history and future of liberal interventionism, marking 25 years since Tony Blair's Chicago speech.

Read online

Lord Alderdice elected an Honorary Fellow at Pembroke

In March 2024, the Governing Body of Pembroke College elected Lord John Alderdice as an Honorary Fellow.

“I am delighted to have been elected an Honorary Fellow of Pembroke College, especially in this its 400th Anniversary year. I have very much enjoyed working at the College in recent years, especially with colleagues in the Changing Character of War Centre and the Quill Project and I look forward to a long association with this wonderful and historic academic community.”

Lord Alderdice

Book published by Rob Johnson : "NATO and the Russian War in Ukraine"

Dr Robert Johnson’s latest book is now available from Hurst. NATO and the Russian War in Ukraine Strategic Integration and Military Interoperability is edited by Robert Johnson and Janne Haaland Matlary.

The book includes a chapter by Rob Johnson on “Multidomain Integration and Multidomain Operations”

Publisher’s Synopsis
For three decades after the Cold War, NATO member states no longer faced a major threat, and focussed on out-of-area operations. They took the opportunity to reduce defence spending and foster their own national defence industries; interoperability was limited to air and maritime missions on a small scale. The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and war by proxy in eastern Donbass was a wake-up call, while China's creeping seizure and fortification of islands in the South China Sea, as well as its relentless acquisition of Western technologies, similarly alerted the Western leadership to a less benign strategic environment. But the real shift occurred in 2022. China and Russia not only announced their 'unlimited friendship', but made clear their intention to reduce American hegemony by breaking up the NATO alliance and its Pacific equivalents. This volume is the first account of the challenges and solutions for so-called strategic integration in this coercive global situation. The contributors show, thematically and through selected national case-studies, how strategic integration and interoperability are conceived, debated, problematised and resolved. The chapters are written with specific reference to the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has galvanised a new era of integration and alliance cooperation within NATO.

Reviews
‘A global geopolitical scene at once febrile, fragile and fraught with danger demands a work of profound strategic substance and significance: this publication is right on cue. This wonderfully crafted book bristles with resonating and incisive insights, and underscores the status of the editors as doyens of contemporary strategic commentary. I commend it unreservedly and with great enthusiasm.’ — David Ellery, Professor, Honorary Fellow and Trustee, Durham University

‘The Russo-Ukrainian War provided NATO with its most demanding test for decades. This thorough analysis of the alliance’s response shows how this test was passed, at least during the war’s first stage. But it also shows how the conflict led member states to reappraise established practice and explore how they could achieve deeper defence integration.’ — Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London

‘A necessary and thought-provoking book that deserves a wide readership.’ — Sten Rynning, Professor of War Studies and Director, Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark

‘This excellent and authoritative volume exploring the galvanising effect of Russia’s brazen invasion of Ukraine on efforts to deepen NATO integration could not be more timely.’ — Mats Berdal, Professor of Security and Development, King’s College London

‘First-rate scholars and analysts highlight that increased defence integration and interoperability are key to NATO’s efforts to address the challenges created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US’s continuing pivot to Asia.’ — Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Associate Professor, Royal Danish Defence College

Lord Alderdice joins the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence

On 24th January 2024, the House of Lords agreed a motion appointing our Executive Chairman, Lord Alderdice, and some other peers to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.  His appointment took effect from 31st January 2024 and is very relevant to the work that he has been doing here at The Changing Character of War Centre as well as his many other commitments on issues of violent political conflict.  

Speaking about his appointment, Lord Alderdice said, 

"I am honoured to have the opportunity to serve on this Committee, not only given my long-standing interest in the issues concerned, but also because its work is becoming increasingly important, with the ever more challenging geo-political environment and the mounting defence threats that HM Government and Parliament are having to address."

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/360/international-relations-and-defence-committee/

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony - Published by Dr Will James

Congratulations to Dr Will James whose first book, British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony, is published with Oxford University Press this week. The book can be ordered here (use the code ASFLYQ6 for a 30% discount).

Is the United Kingdom capable of grand strategy? Common wisdom suggests otherwise. Some think it implausible amid the maelstrom of domestic politics, while others believe the UK lacks the necessary autonomy, as a cog in the US-led order.

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony challenges these claims. Grand strategy is the highest level of national security decision-making, encompassing judgements over a state's overarching objectives and interests, as well as its security environment and resource base. Getting these decisions 'right' is vital in moments of geopolitical flux.

Employing several historical case studies between 1940-2003 and marshalling a host of primary sources, the book demonstrates that British politicians and officials have thought in grand strategic terms under American hegemony - even if they do not realise or admit to this. The book also shows that the role of allies in shaping British grand strategy has been overstated. Finally, it highlights the conditions under which domestic political actors can influence grand strategic decision-making. Written for practitioners as well as scholars, the book concludes with several policy recommendations at this inflection point in British history.

Endorsements:

“Dr James has succeeded in producing a lucidly written and erudite study of the good, the bad, and the ugly in British grand strategy from 1940 to 2003. This absorbing book makes a major contribution to debates on the concept of grand strategy and busts some of the myths associated with this important period in recent British history. It will be essential reading for anyone interested in the UK's place in the world. On the evidence of this authoritative and insightful study, James has established himself as one of the brightest rising stars in strategic studies.”
- Professor John Bew, foreign policy adviser to the Prime Minister

“This is a truly brilliant and original analysis of Britain's grand strategy from the Second World War until the early 21st century, the era of American preponderance in the world. Examining three big decisions - the delaying of the 'Second Front' during the Second World War; the withdrawal from 'East of Suez' in the late 1960s with a refocus on Europe thereafter; and the commitment to join the US-led war in Iraq in 2003, it measures them by criteria of proportionality for the appraisal of success and failure.”
- Professor Beatrice Heuser, Professor of International Relations, University of Glasgow

“British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony makes an important contribution to the study of grand strategy. The book offers a clear definition of grand strategy and one coherent and measurable criterion for judging its quality...Through his systematic analysis of British grand strategy before, during, and after its decline from great power status, James enfeebles the long-held misconception that grand strategy is only for great powers, and thus opens a new, diverse, and exciting array of national cases for comparative study.”
- Professor Barry R. Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

“In a book full of insight, William James rehabilitates the concept of grand strategy as a valuable way to think about defence and foreign policy, demonstrates its value in challenging the idea that the UK has been wholly subservient to the US, and then uses it to reassess three key British decisions - on the second front during World War II, the withdrawal from East of Suez in the late 1960s, and joining the invasion of Iraq in 2003.”
- Professor (Emeritus) Sir Lawrence Freedman, author of Strategy: A History

“Will James convincingly challenges the notion that British governments don't 'do' grand strategy or strategy at all. They do - the issue is whether they do it well. Doing it better requires being properly appraised of geopolitical realities, informed by an understanding of history. The book's Conclusion offers some well-founded suggestions to Ministers and officials which are highly relevant to strategy-making in what the Government itself describes as 'a more contested and volatile world'.”
- Peter Watkins, former Director General Security Policy, Ministry of Defence

Will James: Learning how to secure a military competitive edge

Dr William James took part in a podcast with Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman on 'History rhymes: Learning how to secure a military competitive edge' for the Council on Geostrategy on 14 December 2023. Listen online or search “Defence Talks” on your podcast app. The panel explored what it means to have a military competitive edge, how such an edge has displayed itself in history and what we can learn from this.

Dr James was also a panellist on a webinar on 'The UK and the E3' for the UK in a Changing Europe think tank on 8 November 2023. Watch on Youtube

“British Defence Reviews – A Handy Guide for the Staff Officer”

Lieutenant Commander Andrew Ward RN has published an article for Navy Review on “British Defence Reviews – A Handy Guide for the Staff Officer”

Andrew Ward is the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Research Fellow of CCW.

Ukrainian delegation to CCW

CCW was both delighted and honoured to host a delegation this month from the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including its commandant, Professor Colonel Ruslan Hryshchuk DSC, and its chief of research, Colonel Oleksiy Nozdrachov. The discussion covered a range of topics from military innovation to the potential for collaborative research projects.