On (the Likelihood of) War
Dr Steven Coulson
The Breke (1999) Conflict Catalogue is used to analyse trends in conflict. It is found that contrary to earlier research, the likelihood of war occurring has not decreased and that the outbreak of conflict is not random. There is no evidence to support claims that the world is getting more peaceful. The outbreak of large scale war is statistically possible with a frequency of greater than one per ninety years and the likelihood of smaller conflicts breaking out is much greater with at least one likely to occur every year.
The implications of this study are that there is no evidence to support claims that the world is getting more peaceful. The outbreak of large scale war is statistically possible with a frequency of greater than one per ninety years and that the likelihood of smaller conflicts is much greater, with an expected occurrence of at least one per year.
