NATO in 2022-23: A new era?
On 24 May, CCW brought together experts from the Oxford area and further afield to discuss the future of NATO and Europe’s security architecture in light of the intensification of the war in Ukraine. The seminar was chaired by Dr William James (CCW) and began with short briefings from Will Evans (FCDO), Ian Bond (Centre for European Reform), Professor Neil MacFarlane (Oxford DPIR), Leanne Iorio (Oxford DPIR), and Julia Carver (Oxford DPIR).
Russia’s invasion has upended many assumptions about the European order and forced questions about the suitability of existing frameworks and mechanisms for security cooperation. The transatlantic alliance is in a period of transition, which carries both opportunities and dangers. NATO will adopt a new Strategic Concept in Madrid this month, while Finland and Sweden have recently submitted membership applications. In the near future, the alliance will also select a new secretary general to replace Jens Stoltenberg, the longest serving occupant in the post-Cold War era.
Prior to the Russian invasion, NATO faced several fundamental questions about its future. Would the US ‘pivot’ towards the Indo-Pacific come at the expense of its commitment to European security? What role does the alliance have in responding to China’s growing assertiveness? How might American policy towards NATO shift if Donald Trump or one of his disciples wins the US presidential election in 2024? How could NATO recast its relationship with an increasingly ambitious European Union? Is the alliance willing and able to adjust to unconventional security challenges that increasingly impact its members like pandemics, disinformation campaigns, or the security consequences of climate change?
Participants were encouraged to place this inflection point in historical context. A variety of topics were covered in the group discussion, including: the sustainability of the US commitment to Europe; the politics of German defence spending; the priorities of the new Strategic Concept; areas for NATO-EU collaboration, notably in the cyber domain; the Russian perspective; the efficacy of western sanctions; the role of maritime power in NATO’s deterrence strategies; and the early lessons that are being drawn from the war in Ukraine.
Thank you to all of our speakers and participants for such an excellent discussion.
