Thursday 5 December, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Cyber Incidents, Ethics, and Armed Conflict
Speaker: Dr. Brianna Rosen (Blavatnik School of Government)

After: OTSN Social (all welcome)
Location The Oxford Retreat — Pub within short walk of Nuffield

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 3 December, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

An exploration of the existential threat posed by commercial first person view (FPV) UAVs, modified by asymmetrical warfare actors

Chris Lavers

We consider the threat posed by Commercially-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) civilian UAV platforms, modified for hostile non-state actor use in civilian, and urban warfare environments. Potential aggressors possess small-scale conflict ‘skills’ gained in Syria and Iraq by various Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, with ‘gamer’ first person view technology, alongside innovations markedly increased during COVID, with modified UAVs operated in various novel ways. Technology has blurred the distinction between civilian modified UAV and military drone operators so that clearly demarked war-fighting battlefronts are harder to define, nor combatants distinguishable from civilians. Non-state aggressors with UAV platforms, may now hide effectively amongst civilians, the urban guerrillas’ domain.

The last decade saw the dawn of asymmetric warfare by non-state actors incorporating small, cheap, hand-launched drones, often indigenously manufactured, using simple materials with low radar cross-section (RCS), visible, and thermal signatures. Modification of COTS UAVs by hostile actors for nefarious activities, pose an existential threat, with terrorist operations against critical infrastructure, or IED deployment in conventional urban operations possible at any time. Understanding of this emerging threat is needed, from design to operation, to develop effective countermeasures. 

We look at the evolving UtD pathway, UK vulnerability, counter-drone effectiveness, policy and practice. In the hands of urban guerrillas or overseas trained terrorists, UtD unconventional methods allow targeting of political goals, civilian attacks, government disruption, or assassination. Urban terrorists may employ drones to systematically inflict damage to authorities, to wear down, or demoralise, sustaining operations and tactics without defending recognised operations bases, preventing conventional forces ‘squaring-off’ against them, in confrontations they would likely lose. Drones provide tactical advantages, with surprise, acting in swarms at speed, often hard for ground forces to match. Addressing emerging hostile actor threats, with resources currently allocated to the UK Armed Forces, including UtD operation, will be challenging. This discussion is supported by ‘anonymous’ conversations with key military and civilian users.

Chris Lavers is a Visiting Research Fellow at SST-CCW. He is a University of Lincoln Senior Engineering Lecturer at Britannia Royal Naval College, Dartmouth, and has taught maritime littoral and amphibious sensing topics, and space-based earth observation at Britannia since 1993. He is Subject Matter Expert (Radar and Telecommunications) and International DipHE Programme Manager, with interest in the pedagogy of teaching engineering and physics in Higher Education military establishments, and student staff mentoring.

Chris has a Physics degree, and Doctorate, in liquid crystal optical display time at the Royal Signals and Radar Establishment Malvern with the SP3 liquid crystal team. He then undertook a post-doctoral position in Biosensors at Southampton University, pioneering development of advanced optical sensors for antibody detection, future medical sensors, and biochemical environmental applications working with the Public Health Laboratory Service Porton Down, and Liverpool University. Chris' current research interests focus on military technologies transfer into civilian applications including counter drone technology, autonomous platform optical stealth, optical and waveguide microwave sensing, and analysis of high resolution satellite imagery for UAV humanitarian crises and armed conflicts.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Thursday 28 November, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: AI Governance & U.S.-China Track II Diplomacy
Speaker: Kayla Blomquist (OII) & Elisabeth Siegel (DPIR) (Oxford China Policy Lab)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 27 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Rethinking Non-State Armed Groups: Youth, Agency, and Pathways to Sustainable Peace

Yosuke Nagai, SST- CCW Visiting Fellow

This seminar offers a fresh perspective on the roles and potential of youth within non-state armed groups, exploring both micro-level dynamics and broader implications for global peacebuilding. Based on field experiences across regions like Somalia, Yemen, Kenya, Indonesia, and Colombia, combined with insights from recent research, the presentation will challenge traditional narratives surrounding non-state armed groups and youth associated with non-state armed groups (YANSAG). By examining the complex identities and unique capacities of young disengaged combatants, this session will consider how their reintegration can contribute to sustainable peace. Emphasis will also be placed on how macro-level strategies and frameworks, including international policies and normative shifts, can better support the disengagement, reintegration and empowerment of these youth, moving beyond conventional conflict resolution approaches to foster long-term stability.

Dr Yosuke Nagai is the Executive Director of Accept International and the Founder of the Global Taskforce for Youth Combatants. He has been dedicated to mainly implementing deradicalization, reintegration, and rehabilitation programs for defectors, prisoners, and detainees from non-state armed groups, particularly those involved in violent extremism, in regions such as Somalia, Yemen, Kenya, Indonesia, and Colombia. Currently, as a visiting fellow at the Strategy, Statecraft, and Technology: Changing Character of War Centre at the University of Oxford, Dr Nagai is researching the impact of narratives that empower disengaged combatants as agents of peace.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 26 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Drones in Ukraine and beyond – A revolution in warfare?

Ulrike Franke

Drones have become the iconic weapon of the war in Ukraine. They are being used on both sides, in numbers that were previously inconceivable. The role played by civilian systems is particularly noteworthy. But should we expect future wars to look like the war in Ukraine, or are we witnessing “peak drone”?  

In this talk, Dr. Franke discusses how drones are being used by Ukraine and Russia, the role they are playing and the extent to which they are changing warfare. How is the technology evolving, and what lessons should Western nations draw from this?

Dr. Ulrike Franke is a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Paris. Her areas of focus include German and European security and defence, the future of warfare, and the impact of new technologies such as drones and artificial intelligence on geopolitics and warfare. Franke has published widely on these and other topics, and regularly appears as commentator in the media. She co-hosts Sicherheitshalber, a German-language podcast on security and defence, as well as Le casque et la plume, a French podcast on geopolitics. She holds a DPhil in international relations from the University of Oxford, in her thesis she studied the use of drones by Western armed forces. She also holds a BA from Sciences Po Paris and a double summa cum laude MA from Sciences Po Paris and the University of St. Gallen. She teaches at Sciences Po Paris.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 25 November, 15.00
Eccles Room, Pembroke College

From COVID to force design – are strategic leadership skills the answer?

Brigadier Joe Fossey, British Army

Crises demand agility and immediate action often in high-energy situations. Strategic leadership must bridge both the present and the future, particularly in positioning ourselves in the world and the posture we adopt. In this talk Brigadier Joe Fossey will reflect on his experience, exploring lessons designed to help chart a path through unpredictable times.

Brigadier Joe Fossey was born in 1975. He read chemistry at Leicester University before commissioning into the Royal Engineers in 1998. He has served around the world and his staff experience includes an assignment in the Pentagon and attachment to the UK National Security Secretariat. From 2019-2021 he commanded 8 Engineer Brigade and is currently a student at the Royal College of Defence Studies after three years working on future force design in the Ministry of Defence. His next role in 2025 is as the Army’s new Recruiting Director. Brigadier Fossey is married, has two children and enjoys a wide range of hobbies, sport and music.

All are welcome, no need to book.

Thursday 21 November, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Turning the Tide: Government Action to Counter Ransomware
Speaker: Dr. Roxana Radu (Blavatnik School of Government)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 19 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Integrated Deterrence

Nicholas Taylor

We apologise that this seminar is cancelled . We will aim to reschedule another time for Nicholas’ presentation.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 18 November, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Insider Threats & Foreign Malign Influence, from Detection to Elimination

Meetings will run both in person and online. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. For registration and full details, please see: https://emergingthreats.co.uk/ In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Thursday 14 November, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Compute North vs. Compute South: The Uneven Possibilities of Compute-based AI Governance Around the Globe
Speaker: Boxi Wu (Oxford Internet Institute)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 13 November, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

At the Frontline: Defence, Media and Leadership

Deborah Haynes

Deborah is Sky News' security and defence editor. She covers the biggest foreign stories around the world and carries out her own investigations. She has reported from Europe on Brexit the United States on Donald Trump, and broken stories on suspected Russian disinformation operations and suspected cyber attacks in the UK.

Before joining Sky, she was defence editor and previously Iraq correspondent at The Times. She covered wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, as well as focusing on armed forces issues in the UK, including exposing the true extent of a funding crisis within the UK's military.

She won the Amnesty International award for national newspaper human rights reporting in 2008 for a series on the plight of Iraqi interpreters working for UK forces in Iraq.

This series also won Deborah the inaugural Bevins Prize for investigative journalism in 2008.

Prior to joining The Times, Deborah worked for the Reuters news agency after six years at AFP in Tokyo, Geneva, Baghdad and London.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 12 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Implementing AI systems in Government

Julian von Nehammer, LILT

Jules will speak about his experience implementing AI systems in Government. He will focus on a recent case study – LILT’s generative AI platform which can translate a large amount of content rapidly. When a European law enforcement agency needed a dynamic solution to translate high volumes of content in low-resource languages within tight time constraints, they turned to LILT. LILT’s generative AI platform, powered by large language models, enabled faster translation of time-sensitive information at scale by leveraging NVIDIA GPUs and NVIDIA NeMo, an end-to-end enterprise framework for building, customizing, and deploying generative AI models. Further information: www.nvidia.com/en-gb/case-studies/lilt

Jules leads LILT’s government business in EMEA and Australia. Prior to joining LILT, he was an early partner in a venture fund focussed on dual-use technology. Formerly he was a specialised British Army Officer, deployed in the Middle East and Africa, and published papers on grey zone and asymmetric warfare in multiple Defence journals . He received a first class BA in Music and Russian language and has published papers on technology for musicology. He spends his spare time with his wife, reading, making music, and writing.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Thursday 7 November, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Content Moderation, Platform Governance, and Legitimacy
Speaker: Diyi Liu (Oxford Internet Institute)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 5 November, 13.30
ONLINE: MICROSOFT TEAMS

Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza

Dr Ehud Eilam

Hamas surprised Israel by launching a large-scale attack on October 7, 2023. Israel, after losing more than 1,100 people in one day, responded with a massive offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel inflicted a major blow to Hamas but did not manage to destroy this group. The cost of the war, to the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, has been enormous. Israel also has been paying heavily in blood and treasure. Overall, Israel carried out its offensive based on a half-baked strategy, neglecting key military, political, and economic factors. Israel avoided alternatives, including a more defensive strategy. Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza has serious implications on other fronts as well, mainly the attrition war between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel might also conduct preemptive actions, such as against Iran’s nuclear sites.

Dr Ehud Eilam has been dealing and studying Israel’s national security in the last 35 years. He served in the Israeli military and later worked as a researcher for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. He has a Ph.D. in his field, and he has published nine books in the U.S / U.K . His latest book is: Israel’s new wars - The conflicts between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah and the Palestinians since the 1990s (Peter Lang, 2024). He can be reached at Ehudmh2014@gmail.com

Monday 4 November, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: Terrorist Leadership, New Technologies, and the Changing Character of War

Meetings will run both in person and online. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. For registration and full details, please see: https://emergingthreats.co.uk/ In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Thursday 31 October, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Understanding the Geoeconomics of Data Centres and the Cloud
Speaker: Abid Adonis (Oxford Internet Institute)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 30 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Leading AUKUS: the UK perspective on the Australian, UK, United States strategic alignment for Indo-Pacific Defence and Security

Anne Marie Trevelyan

Anne-Marie Trevelyan was the Minister of State for AUKUS in His Majesty’s Government and this is her account of the multiple benefits of the new strategic alignment for the three powers. She lays out the domestic UK advantages this initiative is producing, and has the potential to produce in the future, for the regeneration of the North-East of England, technological acceleration for UK businesses, and a new era of deterrence against aggression in the region which is such an important strategic and commercial partner for the UK.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 29 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Dams, Canals, and Elephants in the Room: Threats of Water Conflict in Central Asia

Sophie Ibbotson

Central Asia is severely affected by climate change and water stress, a situation which is exacerbated by authoritarianism and lack of investment. Computerised modelling of water conflict risks can help identify potential flashpoints for intra- and international conflict, but is limited by a paucity of good quality data and by machines' inability to adequately assess qualitative factors affecting countries with weak governance and management systems. Decision-makers’ unwillingness to actively engage with and mitigate known threats is also of significant concern, as prolonged inaction reduces the likelihood that conflict can be averted. In this context, Ibbotson will discuss three case studies which may present future challenges to local, national and regional stability: the location of headwaters in the Wakhan Corridor; the construction of the Kosh Tepe Canal; and drought in Karakalpakstan.

Sophie Ibbotson is the Chairman of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs. She works primarily as a consultant to the World Bank and national governments, with a focus on economic development and water security in emerging markets and fragile states. As a 2023/24 Visiting Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre, Sophie examined the forecasting and mitigation of water conflicts in Afghanistan and Central Asia; and she is currently writing the first biography of the Amu Darya (River Oxus), from its source in Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor to the ill-fated Aral Sea.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Thursday 24 October, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: The Political Economy of Worker Retraining in the Age of AI
Speaker: Julian Jacobs (Department of Politics and International Relations)

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Julian Jacobs is a political economist at the University of Oxford specialising in artificial intelligence policy, the political implications of technological shocks, inequality, debt, and polarisation. His previous research looked at the relationship between technological disruption and socio-political views, with a focus on populism, class dealignment, and polarisation. This writing and research has previously been featured in the New York Times, Financial Times, Vox, Politico, Bloomberg, and Jacobin. He is a Senior Economist at OMFIF—a monetary policy think tank—where he helps to drive our AI policy workstream. And he is a consultant at The Brookings Institution and Center for AI Safety.

Tuesday 22 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Strategic defense review

Dr Rob Johnson

Why is the UK having another defence review? Following the comprehensive Integrated Review (2021) and its IR Refresh (2023), the Defence Command Paper (2021) and the Defence Command Paper Refresh (2023), this new Strategic Defence Review will represent the fifth such analysis and projection of policy in just four years. This does not include the spending reviews or capability reviews which have occurred alongside sometimes concurrently with these strategic evaluations. What is its rationale? Will the UK repeat the mistakes of some previous reviews? What is the current state of the UK's defence and what should it be doing to achieve its national strategic objectives,  and its 'means'? How, exactly, should governments design their national strategy, defence policy, and alliance integration? 

Recently returned from two years of secondment to the UK government as the Director of the Office of Net Assessment, Dr Johnson will outline how national strategies are made and how we may need to revise our theory. 

 Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of SST-CCW. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact.

Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters. His bespoke advisory support is not limited to the United Kingdom, but is requested by governments and armed forces in the United States, Europe, and Australia. He is prominent within professional military education, as a member of the advisory panel of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, lecturer for the Royal College of Defence Studies, and as the director of ‘insight and understanding’ study days and workshops. His former military career involved innovations in counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and a clear understanding of the requirements and thinking of the armed services. He is specialist in military strategy, operations, military conceptual developments, and strategic decision making. 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 21 October, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: New Depths: U.S.‐China Competition in Undersea Digital Infrastructure

Moderator: Anniki Mikelsaar, DPhil Candidate, Oxford University

Meetings will run both in person and online. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. For registration and full details, please see: https://emergingthreats.co.uk/ In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

The need for undersea telecommunication cables and their supporting technologies continues to increase. As companies, governments, and individual users are becoming increasingly reliant on cloud-based data storage and secure telecommunications, internet cables and their supporting infrastructure have become indispensable for the functioning of the digital economy and the development and deployment of AI-based systems.

At the same time, the intensifying U.S.-China technological rivalry influences the global digital infrastructure market, posing new challenges to the security of these systems, while equally increasing consumer costs. Recently, governments particularly in the U.S. and Europe have started to strengthen their regulations around cable security, enforcing stricter ownership rules, and endorsing caution toward ‘high-risk vendors.’ Why is that? What are some of the impacts of this strategic competition on the security and openness of the global Internet? And which measures, particularly those of closer industry-government collaboration, would enable overcoming the challenges?

Strategic leadership Seminar Series

Wednesday 16 October, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Strategic Leadership through the prisms of the UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship, the SDR & AUKUS.

Dr Carl Hunter

In this seminar, Professor Carl Stephen Patrick Hunter OBE will discuss strategic leadership through the prism of the UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship. He will address how UK Industry and UK Science can help the United Kingdom meet its defence and security objectives and how UK Defence-UK Science-UK Industry relationship can secure the most comprehensive possible defence enterprise.

In this complex geopolitical context, we are at a  “near-war AUKUS” age. We face adversarial state threats from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea and significant global threats such as corruption, terrorism, the growth of “ungoverned space”, a distortion of International Standards, water vulnerability, health and new pandemic risks. A National Strategy must be formulated and implemented to alleviate and address them from  a health, wealth and security perspective.

Defence and Security are 2 of the 4 public service capabilities, alongside Diplomacy and Development, and mirrored by the 4 private sector capabilities of Trade, Finance, the Intellectual & Scientific and the Cultural. It is only when all 8 of the UK’s core capabilities are aligned and their interdependence understood that the UK’s most intractable problems can be identified at home and overseas. UK Science, and UK Industry must work in tandem with UK Defence and UK Security to make the next 75 years the gift that it should be for our future generations.

Dr Carl Hunter is Chairman of Coltraco Ultrasonics, a high-exporting advanced manufacturer, Director-General of the Durham Institute of Research, Development & Invention (DIRDI), Director of the Centre of Underwater Acoustic Analysis (CUAA), Professor-in-Practice at Durham University, and Chairman of the Council on Geostrategy Forum. Carl has long leadership experience in the aerospace, marine, energy, manufacturing, scientific, geostrategic and defence sectors and is committed to the development of a national strategy as part of a public service-led national, shared endeavour. Experienced in the private and public sectors, and a former Green Jacket Officer, Coltraco Ultrasonics focuses on ultrasound, acoustics, electro-magnetism and information engineering and has twice-won the Queen’s Award for Enterprise in 2019 and 2022. Their instrumentation is aboard 20% of the world’s shipping fleet, leading allied Navies and across offshore energy. Earlier in his career, Carl was Managing Director International Markets for TIMCO Aviation Services in NC USA, becoming the largest independent aircraft engineering maintenance, repair and overhaul organisation in the world. Prior to that he was Senior Advisor International Markets to United Airlines/United Services, San Francisco CA USA, the largest B777/B747-400 wide-body and PW4090 aircraft engine operator in the world.

During COVID19 he was a member of the UK Government’s COVID19 Economic Recovery Taskforce. His company did not place anyone into furlough, instead establishing a new laboratory, co-located with the Centre for Advanced Instrumentation, part of the Department of Physics, Durham University. They developed via Innovate UK the first instrument to be able to check that negatively pressurised ICU Wards in NHS Hospitals were containing infection rather than spreading COVID19 into the rest of the hospital, which has since developed into the world’s most accurate instrument in the Built Environment to monitor building airtightness and energy loss. He advises several UK Government departments including as co-Chair of External Engagement to Director SONAC at the MoD 2022-24, where he supports Director Defence Innovation and Director UKDSE. He contributed to the Integrated Review in modest external engagement at No10.Carl is a Visiting Fellow of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre, an Honorary Fellow of the Strategy Statecraft Technology (Changing Character of War) Centre, at Pembroke College, Oxford and a Fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society, The Royal Institution of Naval Architects and The Institute of Marine Engineering, Science & Technology. He holds an Honorary Doctorate in Science from Durham University and Durham University Senate’s highest Dunelmensis Award, for his contribution to undergraduate development and scientific research. His research institute aims to be a strategic, nationally significant, “Ideas Factory”, bridging private sector capabilities to a public service-led scientific and geopolitical research ethos, aiming to identify and support the “Next Newton” and future UK Nobel Prize winners over 20-year periods. The CUAA is his “gift to the nation” and specifically to the Royal Navy. DIRDI consists of 325 senior academics and geo-strategists at Professor and Associate Professor level, from the Universities of Durham, Cambridge, Oxford, Imperial College, University College and Kings College London. Carl was recently honoured with the OBE.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 15 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

"Slow Slicing"  - How China's asymmetric tactics build the Great Rejuvenation 

Dr Sari Arho Harvén

"China Dream", "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" or "Community with shared future for mankind" are not just Communist Party jargon, but integral elements of China's Grand Plan to establish a global order (global governance) that ensures the safety of the Communist Party regime in the future. This plan, often overlooked in the West, is a long-term strategy that aims to impact not only global security architectures but also the very fundamentals of democratic societies. 

This seminar presentation will examine what Beijing wants and specifically the asymmetric methods it employs to achieve "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049". In the context of China's foreign policy, this encompasses unconventional warfare, hybrid operations, and other forms of influence. The significance of the China-Russia relationship, also underestimated due to historical reasons, will also be discussed as it plays a crucial part in Xi Jinping's strategy. 

Dr Sari Arho Havrén, Counsellor and a Senior Advisor at Business Finland, under the Embassy of Finland in Belgium, leads the Team Finland foresight and strategy work in Europe, with previous positions in China and Asia Pacific. Sari is a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki (China Cold War). She is also a former European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and an adjunct professor (Great Power competition and China) at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

Sari’s special expertise include: China's international relations especially with the EU nations and the US; Geopolitical analysis; foresight process creation and facilitation; foresight research, analysis and insight; sense making of the future signals and trends; China’s operational environment; and future scenarios; platform and ecosystem development; network leadership; management across multicultural environments. She is a certified futurist, Asia Pacific senior analyst in government and commercial demand and a popular speaker on geopolitics, international relations and future phenomena, as well as on Asian operative landscapes.

Sari obtained her PhD in international relations from the University of Helsinki.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 12 June, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Space Policy, Data Centres on the Moon, and New Colonialism
Speaker: Yung Au (Oxford Internet Institute)

After: Cyber Strategy Group Social (all welcome)
Location The Oxford Retreat — Pub within short walk of Nuffield

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Monday 10 June, 17.00
Hertford College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Topic: TBC

Speaker: Christopher Morris, Oxford University; CCW Emerging Threats Group Director

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College

Friday 7 June, 13.30
Charles Wellbeloved Room , Harris Manchester College

Small States at the heart of the EU: The case of Andorra

Professor Juli Minoves-Triquell, University of La Verne and University of Andorra

Very small states in continental Europe are not EU members yet have crafted successive strategies of close cooperation with the EU. Liechtenstein is a member of the EEA, and Andorra and San Marino have concluded comprehensive association agreements that will soon enter into force. Dr Minoves negotiated the 2004 agreements between Andorra and the EU and initiated a paragraph of the Lisbon treaty that created a juridical basis for specific agreements between the EU and small states (declaration 3 on article 8). In his lecture he will analyse the logic behind the asymptotic approaches of European small states to the EU. He will explain the cautious negotiations by Andorra from the Custom Union of 1990, the treaty of cooperation of 2004, the monetary agreement of 2011, to the recent conclusion of an extensive association agreement.

Dr Juli Minoves-Triquell is a Full Professor  and Director of the International Studies Institute of the University of La Verne, California, and President (Rector) elect of the University of Andorra. He holds a PhD in Political Science from Yale University and a degree in economics from the University of Fribourg. In 2022 he was elected as a member of the Spanish Royal Academy of Economic and Financial Sciences (Institute of Spain). He has served his country, Andorra, as a diplomat and politician, notably as first ambassador to the United Nations, to the Kingdom of Spain and to the United Kingdom, as well as Foreign Minister (2001-2007). From 2014 to 2018 he was the 13th President of Liberal International, the world federation of liberal democratic political parties, founded at Oxford University in 1947.

Seminar at 13.30, Charles Wellbeloved Room , Harris Manchester College
All are welcome, no need to book.

Illusionary Trends in Strategic Studies Seminar Series

Wednesday 5 June, 17.15
Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL

Cultural Bridges and Cold War Alliances: Lessons from the GDR’s Diplomatic Dance with Japan

Dr Bethan Winter, Oxford

As countries of strategic importance on opposing sides of the Cold War divide, the domestic and foreign policies of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Japan were expected to align closely with those of their respective superpower hegemons. At the same time, West Germany’s Hallstein Doctrine threatened to cut ties with any country that recognized the GDR as a legitimate state, severely restricting East Germany from establishing diplomatic relationships with states outside of the Soviet sphere of influence. Yet, despite these seemingly impermeable geopolitical barriers, the GDR and Japan managed to forge a mutually-beneficial relationship through the use of culture.

This talk will explore both top-down government initiatives and grassroots interactions between the GDR and Japan, illustrating how culture—whether through deliberate soft power strategies or through ‘incidental’ diplomatic exchanges—can play a pivotal role in bridging divides even in the most polarized global contexts.

Bethan Winters is a social and cultural historian of the Cold War, specialising in the German Democratic Republic and its international relations. Bethan is currently a Lecturer in Music at Magdalen College, Oxford, where she was previously a Lecturer in History. She teaches across the music, history, and politics departments.

Seminars at 17.15, Wharton Room, All Souls College, Oxford, OX1 4AL.
All are welcome, no need to book.

Wednesday 5 June, 15.00
Chester Room, Nuffield College

OXFORD TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY NEXUS

Topic: Multilateral AI Governance Negotiations & Global Inclusion at the UN
Sam Daws, Senior Practitioner Associate (DPIR)

Sam Daws works on the interface of multilateral policy, diplomatic strategy, and geopolitics, with a focus on AI governance. He has worked in UN-related policy roles for over three decades. From 2000 to 2003 he served as First Officer to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York. He later served as Deputy Director in the UK Cabinet Office supporting the Prime Minister’s role as Co-Chair of the UN Panel on the creation of the Sustainable Development Goals. His previous roles included Senior Principal Research Analyst in the Multilateral Policy Directorate of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, Executive Director of the United Nations Association of the UK, and UK Representative of the United Nations Foundation.

Sam has a degree in social anthropology with African and Asian development studies, and a Masters in international conflict analysis.

The Oxford Technology and Security Nexus meets at Nuffield College as well as hybrid on Zoom. The group ultimately aims to break down siloes between academic research and policy/security practitioners’ work, demystify the political and security implications of new technologies, and foster better findings- and ideas-sharing among the broader Oxford community invested in these topics.

Attendance to all sessions is open to graduate students and members of the academic or policy communities. Group attendance may be limited; it is encouraged for all interested participants to contact Elisabeth (elisabeth.siegel@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance to secure their place and receive the preparatory materials.

Tuesday 4 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Rare Earths, Meteorites and Magnets

Prof. Lindsay Greer, Cambridge

Rare-earth elements are not necessarily rare, but are found only in low-concentration deposits and are difficult to extract. They are used (at low concentrations) in many technologies: flat-panel displays, LED lights, camera lenses, catalytic converters, disc-drives, batteries, and many more. Now, the largest use is in permanent magnets, which are used in electric motors and generators. With the aim towards ‘zero carbon’ and electrification, manifest in the proliferation of electric cars and wind turbines, the demand for permanent magnets has soared. With up to 95% of all rare earths coming from China, there is strategic concern about security of supply: rare earths top the ‘critical materials’ list. It has been of great interest, therefore, that some meteorites (composed mainly of iron and nickel, and, importantly, devoid of rare earths) have regions within them with excellent magnetic properties, even rivalling those of man-made magnets containing rare earths. These regions even act as magnetic recorders of conditions in the early Universe. But meteorites cannot meet the demand for magnets. This talk is largely about the decades-long struggle to replicate the desirable structures in meteorites — a tale of occasional glimpses of success, of dashed hopes, and of ongoing efforts. And I will mention how I got into research in this area, while looking for something totally different!

Lindsay Greer earned MA and PhD degrees at Cambridge, then undertook postdoctoral work and was Assistant Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard University before returning to a faculty position in Cambridge.  He has held visiting positions at the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble and the Centre d'Études Nucléaires de Grenoble, and was Harrison Distinguished Visiting Professor, Department of Physics and Centre for Materials Innovation, Washington University.  He holds an Advisory Professorship at Chongqing University.  He is an editor of Philosophical Magazine (founded in 1798, publishing papers on the structure and properties of condensed matter).  He has been awarded the Pilkington Teaching Prize of the University of Cambridge, the Light Metals and Cast Shop Technology Awards of TMS (USA), the Cook-Ablett Award, the Hume Rothery Prize and the Griffith Medal of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining, the ISMANAM Senior Scientist Medal, the Honda Kotaro Memorial Medal of Tohoku University, and the Lee Hsun Lecture Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  He has published two books, more than 10 book chapters and more than 350 scientific papers.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Monday 3 June, 17.00
Pembroke College and Online

Emerging Threats & Technology Working Group

Wargame: QUANTUM FURY Wargame, Cyber Cup Rematch

Facilitator: Caroline Baylon, Said Business School Fellow, APPG Lead, ETG Research Associate

Christopher Morris runs a weekly discussion group. Please be aware that group attendance may be limited. It is required to contact Christopher (Christopher.Morris@politics.ox.ac.uk) in advance for availability. Meetings will run both in person and online.

In person location: Mary Hyde Eccles Room, Pembroke College