Tuesday 19 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Integrated Deterrence

Nicholas Taylor

We apologise that this seminar is cancelled . We will aim to reschedule another time for Nicholas’ presentation.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 12 November, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Implementing AI systems in Government

Julian von Nehammer, LILT

Jules will speak about his experience implementing AI systems in Government. He will focus on a recent case study – LILT’s generative AI platform which can translate a large amount of content rapidly. When a European law enforcement agency needed a dynamic solution to translate high volumes of content in low-resource languages within tight time constraints, they turned to LILT. LILT’s generative AI platform, powered by large language models, enabled faster translation of time-sensitive information at scale by leveraging NVIDIA GPUs and NVIDIA NeMo, an end-to-end enterprise framework for building, customizing, and deploying generative AI models. Further information: www.nvidia.com/en-gb/case-studies/lilt

Jules leads LILT’s government business in EMEA and Australia. Prior to joining LILT, he was an early partner in a venture fund focussed on dual-use technology. Formerly he was a specialised British Army Officer, deployed in the Middle East and Africa, and published papers on grey zone and asymmetric warfare in multiple Defence journals . He received a first class BA in Music and Russian language and has published papers on technology for musicology. He spends his spare time with his wife, reading, making music, and writing.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 5 November, 13.30
ONLINE: MICROSOFT TEAMS

Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza

Dr Ehud Eilam

Hamas surprised Israel by launching a large-scale attack on October 7, 2023. Israel, after losing more than 1,100 people in one day, responded with a massive offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel inflicted a major blow to Hamas but did not manage to destroy this group. The cost of the war, to the Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, has been enormous. Israel also has been paying heavily in blood and treasure. Overall, Israel carried out its offensive based on a half-baked strategy, neglecting key military, political, and economic factors. Israel avoided alternatives, including a more defensive strategy. Israel’s flawed strategy in the war in Gaza has serious implications on other fronts as well, mainly the attrition war between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel might also conduct preemptive actions, such as against Iran’s nuclear sites.

Dr Ehud Eilam has been dealing and studying Israel’s national security in the last 35 years. He served in the Israeli military and later worked as a researcher for the Israeli Ministry of Defense. He has a Ph.D. in his field, and he has published nine books in the U.S / U.K . His latest book is: Israel’s new wars - The conflicts between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah and the Palestinians since the 1990s (Peter Lang, 2024). He can be reached at Ehudmh2014@gmail.com

Tuesday 29 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Dams, Canals, and Elephants in the Room: Threats of Water Conflict in Central Asia

Sophie Ibbotson

Central Asia is severely affected by climate change and water stress, a situation which is exacerbated by authoritarianism and lack of investment. Computerised modelling of water conflict risks can help identify potential flashpoints for intra- and international conflict, but is limited by a paucity of good quality data and by machines' inability to adequately assess qualitative factors affecting countries with weak governance and management systems. Decision-makers’ unwillingness to actively engage with and mitigate known threats is also of significant concern, as prolonged inaction reduces the likelihood that conflict can be averted. In this context, Ibbotson will discuss three case studies which may present future challenges to local, national and regional stability: the location of headwaters in the Wakhan Corridor; the construction of the Kosh Tepe Canal; and drought in Karakalpakstan.

Sophie Ibbotson is the Chairman of the Royal Society for Asian Affairs. She works primarily as a consultant to the World Bank and national governments, with a focus on economic development and water security in emerging markets and fragile states. As a 2023/24 Visiting Fellow at the Changing Character of War Centre, Sophie examined the forecasting and mitigation of water conflicts in Afghanistan and Central Asia; and she is currently writing the first biography of the Amu Darya (River Oxus), from its source in Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor to the ill-fated Aral Sea.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 22 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Strategic defense review

Dr Rob Johnson

Why is the UK having another defence review? Following the comprehensive Integrated Review (2021) and its IR Refresh (2023), the Defence Command Paper (2021) and the Defence Command Paper Refresh (2023), this new Strategic Defence Review will represent the fifth such analysis and projection of policy in just four years. This does not include the spending reviews or capability reviews which have occurred alongside sometimes concurrently with these strategic evaluations. What is its rationale? Will the UK repeat the mistakes of some previous reviews? What is the current state of the UK's defence and what should it be doing to achieve its national strategic objectives,  and its 'means'? How, exactly, should governments design their national strategy, defence policy, and alliance integration? 

Recently returned from two years of secondment to the UK government as the Director of the Office of Net Assessment, Dr Johnson will outline how national strategies are made and how we may need to revise our theory. 

 Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of SST-CCW. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Norwegian Defence University Staff College and Adjunct Professor of Strategic Studies at Rennes School of Business in France. He is a historian, strategic studies and International Relations scholar combining academic analyses with ‘knowledge exchange’ policy impact.

Dr Johnson was the first Director of the UK Office of Net Assessment and Challenge, working closely with the Secretary of State for Defence, Ministers, and Cabinet Office. He continues to advise and delivers direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters. His bespoke advisory support is not limited to the United Kingdom, but is requested by governments and armed forces in the United States, Europe, and Australia. He is prominent within professional military education, as a member of the advisory panel of the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, lecturer for the Royal College of Defence Studies, and as the director of ‘insight and understanding’ study days and workshops. His former military career involved innovations in counter-terrorism, counterinsurgency, and a clear understanding of the requirements and thinking of the armed services. He is specialist in military strategy, operations, military conceptual developments, and strategic decision making. 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 15 October, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

"Slow Slicing"  - How China's asymmetric tactics build the Great Rejuvenation 

Dr Sari Arho Harvén

"China Dream", "Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" or "Community with shared future for mankind" are not just Communist Party jargon, but integral elements of China's Grand Plan to establish a global order (global governance) that ensures the safety of the Communist Party regime in the future. This plan, often overlooked in the West, is a long-term strategy that aims to impact not only global security architectures but also the very fundamentals of democratic societies. 

This seminar presentation will examine what Beijing wants and specifically the asymmetric methods it employs to achieve "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049". In the context of China's foreign policy, this encompasses unconventional warfare, hybrid operations, and other forms of influence. The significance of the China-Russia relationship, also underestimated due to historical reasons, will also be discussed as it plays a crucial part in Xi Jinping's strategy. 

Dr Sari Arho Havrén, Counsellor and a Senior Advisor at Business Finland, under the Embassy of Finland in Belgium, leads the Team Finland foresight and strategy work in Europe, with previous positions in China and Asia Pacific. Sari is a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki (China Cold War). She is also a former European China Policy Fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) and an adjunct professor (Great Power competition and China) at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

Sari’s special expertise include: China's international relations especially with the EU nations and the US; Geopolitical analysis; foresight process creation and facilitation; foresight research, analysis and insight; sense making of the future signals and trends; China’s operational environment; and future scenarios; platform and ecosystem development; network leadership; management across multicultural environments. She is a certified futurist, Asia Pacific senior analyst in government and commercial demand and a popular speaker on geopolitics, international relations and future phenomena, as well as on Asian operative landscapes.

Sari obtained her PhD in international relations from the University of Helsinki.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 4 June, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Rare Earths, Meteorites and Magnets

Prof. Lindsay Greer, Cambridge

Rare-earth elements are not necessarily rare, but are found only in low-concentration deposits and are difficult to extract. They are used (at low concentrations) in many technologies: flat-panel displays, LED lights, camera lenses, catalytic converters, disc-drives, batteries, and many more. Now, the largest use is in permanent magnets, which are used in electric motors and generators. With the aim towards ‘zero carbon’ and electrification, manifest in the proliferation of electric cars and wind turbines, the demand for permanent magnets has soared. With up to 95% of all rare earths coming from China, there is strategic concern about security of supply: rare earths top the ‘critical materials’ list. It has been of great interest, therefore, that some meteorites (composed mainly of iron and nickel, and, importantly, devoid of rare earths) have regions within them with excellent magnetic properties, even rivalling those of man-made magnets containing rare earths. These regions even act as magnetic recorders of conditions in the early Universe. But meteorites cannot meet the demand for magnets. This talk is largely about the decades-long struggle to replicate the desirable structures in meteorites — a tale of occasional glimpses of success, of dashed hopes, and of ongoing efforts. And I will mention how I got into research in this area, while looking for something totally different!

Lindsay Greer earned MA and PhD degrees at Cambridge, then undertook postdoctoral work and was Assistant Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard University before returning to a faculty position in Cambridge.  He has held visiting positions at the Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble and the Centre d'Études Nucléaires de Grenoble, and was Harrison Distinguished Visiting Professor, Department of Physics and Centre for Materials Innovation, Washington University.  He holds an Advisory Professorship at Chongqing University.  He is an editor of Philosophical Magazine (founded in 1798, publishing papers on the structure and properties of condensed matter).  He has been awarded the Pilkington Teaching Prize of the University of Cambridge, the Light Metals and Cast Shop Technology Awards of TMS (USA), the Cook-Ablett Award, the Hume Rothery Prize and the Griffith Medal of the Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining, the ISMANAM Senior Scientist Medal, the Honda Kotaro Memorial Medal of Tohoku University, and the Lee Hsun Lecture Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.  He has published two books, more than 10 book chapters and more than 350 scientific papers.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Inter-alliance Security Dilemmas: Korean Counterforce Systems and Their Effect on the Sino- American Nuclear Competition

Sam Seitz, University of Oxford

Cold War strategic competition was dominated by the actions of the US and USSR. Their material preponderance, coupled with tightly integrated multilateral alliances systems in Europe, oriented competition around this central axis of competition. But the current environment is less centralized, characterized by cross-cutting alliances and interacting nuclear dyads. How has this changed the nature of nuclear competition? We assess this question by considering the inter-Korean competition and its effects outside the peninsula. In response to North Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, Seoul has procured stealth aircraft and precision, long-range missiles. It has also authorized the deployment of US missile defense systems to its territory, pursued greater nuclear coordination with Washington, and even threatened nuclear acquisition itself. These moves are aimed at Pyongyang, but they have spillover effects on China. Exploiting new Chinese language military documents, we show that South Korea’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal of counterforce systems is contributing to Beijing’s anxiety about the survivability of its nuclear arsenal, helping to spur China’s nuclear arsenal expansion. This has important implications both for the academic literature on alliances and arms racing as well as for policy debates surrounding Sino-American nuclear competition. In particular, it suggests that alliances might not just entrap patrons in wars but also in arms races. This creates a type of inter-alliance security dilemma, where security spirals in one state dyad produce security spirals in separate state dyads. Further, it reveals that contemporary strategic competition in East Asia systematically differs from the Cold War due to the existence of multiple cross-cutting alliances. This complicates signaling efforts, and, by increasing the number of relevant actors, augurs deep challenges for any efforts at bilateral nuclear arms control between the US and China.

 Samuel Seitz is an incoming Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program and DPhil Candidate in International Relations at The University of Oxford. His research interests include status-seeking in international relations, nuclear strategy, military procurement policy, alliance politics, and the ways in which they intersect. His work has been published in Contemporary Security Policy, The Washington Quarterly, Foreign Affairs, and The US-China Perception Monitor. Sam has also worked as a Summer Associate and Adjunct Researcher at the RAND Corporation. He received an M.A. in Security Studies and a B.S.F.S. in International Politics from Georgetown University.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Spy and Tell: Why are governments publicly sharing more intelligence secrets than ever before?

Professor David V. Gioe, Kings College London
Thomas Maguire, Leiden University

Professor David Gioe is Visiting Professor of Intelligence and International Security in the KCL Department of War Studies. He joins the department as a British Academy Global Professor. He is Associate Professor of History at the US Military Academy at West Point, where he also serves as History Fellow for the Army Cyber Institute. David is also Director of Studies for the Cambridge Security Initiative and co-convener of its International Security and Intelligence program. Professor Gioe is an internationally recognised academic scholar of intelligence and a veteran professional practitioner of the craft. He is experienced in civilian, military, corporate and law enforcement intelligence with expertise in intelligence analysis and overseas operations. After over a decade of public service as an intelligence officer, he became a leading intellectual with several conference presentations, media engagements and publications on intelligence and national security issues. He holds advanced degrees from Georgetown University and the University of Cambridge. His scholarship and analysis has appeared in numerous outlets.

Dr Thomas Maguire is an Assistant Professor of Intelligence and Security in the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, and Visiting Fellow with the King’s Centre for the Study of Intelligence in the Department of War Studies, King’s College London (KCL). Tom's research streams are two-fold. Firstly, he is interested in interactions between intelligence and propaganda in international politics, especially examining covert influence and intelligence disclosures as policy tools. This forms the basis for a forthcoming book with Oxford University Press, The intelligence-propaganda nexus: British and American covert action in Cold War Southeast Asia. It is also the thematic focus for a Dutch Government-funded research project, ‘Sharing Secrets’, for which Tom is the Principal Investigator. This examines state decision-making behind disclosing intelligence to influence external audiences. Secondly, Tom is interested in the politics and impacts of international security cooperation, in particular exploring post-colonial security relationships between states in Africa and Asia and the United Kingdom during the Cold War and so-called Global War on Terror.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 14 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Open-Source Intelligence: what is it for, where did it come from and what is standing in its way?

Matthew Lawrence, Centre for Information Resilience 

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is everywhere right now.   From the blue tick ‘journalists’ on the remnants of Twitter to boardrooms and the world’s battlefields.  Yet if the observer grabs any two OSINT examples or indeed any two OSINT practitioners, it is likely that they will get completely different answers to all of the questions in this seminar’s title.  Moreover, if that same observer felt inclined to dive into academic definitions from either Intelligence Studies or Journalism, they would find themselves confused about how what they’ve seen relates to what they’re reading in any way. This session seeks to explain that dissonance by exploring where the various streams of OSINT came from, what common goods/challenges exist, and what that means for OSINT’s evolving role(s). 

Matt Lawrence is a career intelligence professional.  He spent ten years using OSINT techniques in traditional settings in the British Army, he spent a further three years building corporate capabilities around them, and he now works at the Centre for Information Resilience where he attempts to combine his studied professional and academic view of intelligence with the power of the OSINT community for the purpose of human rights accountability. Matt stays connected to the technology driven side of private sector intelligence through consultancy work for both multi-national and start-up tech companies, building tradecraft and translating intelligence use cases.

As an occasional academic, Matt holds a BSc and an MA in Intelligence and International Relations and is currently working toward a PhD on the subject of OSINT’s evolving role in the world.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 7 May, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Shifting Global Terrorism and Extremism Landscape: A View from Southeast Asia

Prof. Kumar Ramakrishna, RSIS Singapore

This talk provides an analysis of shifting global terrorism and extremism trends from a Southeast Asian and more specifically Singaporean vantage point. It sketches out the ideological and physical dimensions of the threat in Southeast Asia, explores an emergent far right ideological strain in a region long dominated by an Islamist extremist one - and reinforces the need for a holistic, multisectoral response to the threat, incorporating calibrated military/law enforcement responses as part of an “indirect” strategic counter-terrorism effort.

Kumar Ramakrishna is Professor of National Security Studies, Provost’s Chair in National Security Studies, Dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), as well as Research Adviser to the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, at RSIS. Prior to his current appointments, he was Head, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (2020-2022), Head, Centre of Excellence for National Security (2006-2015) and Head, National Security Studies Programme (2016 to 2020). He was also Associate Dean for Policy Studies (2020 to 2022).

A historian by background, Professor Ramakrishna has been a frequent speaker on counter-terrorism before local and international audiences, a regular media commentator on counter-terrorism, and an established author in numerous internationally refereed journals. His first book, Emergency Propaganda: The Winning of Malayan Hearts and Minds 1948-1958 (2002) was described by the International History Review as “required reading for historians of Malaya, and for those whose task is to counter insurgents, guerrillas, and terrorists”. His second major book, Radical Pathways: Understanding Muslim Radicalisation in Indonesia (2009) was featured as one of the top 150 books on terrorism and counterterrorism in the respected journal Perspectives on Terrorism, which identified Professor Ramakrishna as “one of Southeast Asia’s leading counterterrorism experts”. His recent research has focused on understanding, preventing and countering violent extremism in Southeast Asia. His latest book is Extremist Islam: Recognition and Response in Southeast Asia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2022).

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 30 April, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

“Out of the Blue”: The mirroring fallacy and the navies of today

Lt Cdr Andrew Ward, CCW & Royal Navy

In the 1960s, the Soviet Navy was quietly recapitalising and expanding. As détente collapsed in the late 1970s, western analysts panicked as the Soviet Fleet patrolled the world ocean, supported socialist revolutions around the world and established naval bases astride vital maritime chokepoints such as the Bab-al-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. But the signs had been there all along. Under the visionary leadership of Admiral of the Soviet Union Sergei Gorshkov, the USSR had hankered after sea power for a generation. Gorshkov’s conception of fleet composition was dismissed in the West because it did not mirror the blue water battle fleets that had won the Second World War for the Allies. As the Cold War climaxed in the 1980s, the US Navy reacted to this new Soviet Fleet with a massive expansion in ships and an aggressive forward Maritime Strategy. The world ocean of 2024 is still patrolled by the results of that endeavour, ready for the next naval challenger – the People’s Liberation Army Navy. This talk will build on archival research on Admiralty Records throughout the Cold War and follows Andrew’s first paper published in the Journal of Intelligence History in 2022. 

Andrew Ward is the 2023-24 Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Fellow at CCW. Andrew joined the Royal Navy in 2012, serving at sea in destroyers HMS DRAGON and DUNCAN in the Middle East. Recently he has been working in international policy at the Ministry of Defence and Northwood Headquarters. He read Philosophy, Politics and Economics at University College, was a visiting student at Washington & Lee University and completed an MA in Defence and Security Studies (Maritime) at King’s College London in 2021. His paper on the Royal Navy and the Early Cold War was published in January 2022.

Seminars at 13.30, Wharton Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 23 April, 13.30
Hovenden Room, All Souls

Please note room change for Week 1

Some new insights into the psychology of individuals and large groups in a world of changing conflicts

Lord John Alderdice, CCW

The use of overwhelming force no longer guarantees victory in war.  Under what conditions do supposedly weaker conflict actors ‘outpower’ stronger actors?  Lord Alderdice will argue that those most willing to sustain extreme conflict have been ‘devoted actors’ driven by non-negotiable ‘sacred values’.  Bringing into dialogue insights from large group psychology, neuroscience, and epigenetics with those of political science, he will describe two factors one biological, and the other from complex large group psychology, that can help explain these apparently non-rational phenomena.

John, Lord Alderdice has an academic and professional background in medicine, psychiatry, and psychoanalysis. He was a consultant psychiatrist and Senior Lecturer at The Queen’s University of Belfast where he established the Centre for Psychotherapy with various degree courses, research work and clinical services. He also devoted himself to understanding and addressing religious fundamentalism and long-standing violent political conflict, initially in Ireland, and then in various other parts of the world. This commitment took him into politics, and he was elected Leader of Northern Ireland’s Alliance Party from 1987 to 1998, playing a significant role in the negotiation of the 1998 Belfast/Good Friday Agreement. When the new Northern Ireland Assembly was elected, he became its first Speaker. In 2004 he retired from the Assembly on being appointed by the British and Irish Governments as one of the four members of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), appointed to close down the operations of the paramilitary organizations (2003-2011) and he continued with this work on security issues when he and two colleagues were commissioned by the new Northern Ireland Government to produce a report advising them on strategy for disbanding the remaining paramilitary groups (2016).

Having been appointed to House of Lords in 1996 he was elected Convenor of the Liberal Democrats for the first four years of the Liberal/Conservative Coalition Government from 2010 to 2014. His international interests had previously led to his election as President of Liberal International, the global network of some 100 liberal political parties and organizations. He served from 2005 to 2009 and remains an active Presidente D’Honneur. He recently was elected to the House of Lords Select Committee on International Relations and Defence.

He is the founding Director of the Conference on the Resolution of Intractable Conflict, based in Oxford and with colleagues in Belfast he also established the Centre for Democracy and Peace Building which continues work on the implementation of the principles of the Good Friday Agreement and takes the lessons of the Irish Peace Process to other communities in conflict. More recently he set up The Concord Foundation with a wider remit in understanding and addressing the nature of violent political conflict and its resolution. Lord Alderdice’s work has been recognized throughout the world with many fellowships, visiting professorships, honorary doctorates, and international awards. John is currently the Executive Chairman of CCW.

Seminars at 13.30, Hovenden Room, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 5 March, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

AI and Machine Learning in OSINT

Sam Pearce, Fivecast

Open Source Intelligence is coming of age, after a long time spent in the shadow of more established intelligence disciplines. It’s doing so in a period of rapid technological change, including widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence capability to enhance and augment the work of intelligence professionals.  This lecture will highlight the specific challenges for those intelligence professionals trying to derive insight from vast quantities of data – with a focus on modern social media platforms – and explain how Machine Learning and other modern technology is being harnessed for that effort.

As the Tradecraft Lead for UK and Europe, Sam helps Fivecast’s law enforcement and national security customers understand how to fuse technology with tradecraft, in order to boost the efficiency of investigators. Prior to Fivecast, Sam spent 15 years in the Australian Intelligence Community.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 27 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Book Launch: British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony

Dr William D. James, KCL and CCW

Is the United Kingdom capable of grand strategy? Common wisdom suggests otherwise. Some think it implausible amid the maelstrom of domestic politics, while others believe the UK lacks the necessary autonomy, as a cog in the US-led order.

British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony challenges these claims. Grand strategy is the highest level of national security decision-making, encompassing judgements over a state's overarching objectives and interests, as well as its security environment and resource base. Getting these decisions 'right' is vital in moments of geopolitical flux.

Employing several historical case studies between 1940-2003 and marshalling a host of primary sources, the book demonstrates that British politicians and officials have thought in grand strategic terms under American hegemony - even if they do not realise or admit to this. The book also shows that the role of allies in shaping British grand strategy has been overstated. Finally, it highlights the conditions under which domestic political actors can influence grand strategic decision-making. Written for practitioners as well as scholars, the book concludes with several policy recommendations at this inflection point in British history.

The book can be preordered here and will be on sale at the launch event. The book can be purchased at a 30% discount using the code ASFLYQ6. More information can be found here. 

Dr William D. James is a Research Fellow in the Centre for Grand Strategy at King's College London and a Senior Associate of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre. He has previously held fellowships at MIT, Harvard, and the University of Notre Dame. William earned a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford. Beyond his academic publishing, he writes for outlets such as War on the Rocks and Engelsberg Ideas. William has also contributed evidence to three parliamentary inquiries on British foreign policy. In 2020, he won RUSI's Trench Gascoigne Prize for original writing on defence and security.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 20 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

The Russian Challenge to Europe’s Gas Supplies this Winter and Beyond

Dr Sidharth Kaushal, RUSI

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Sidharth Kaushal's research at RUSI covers the impact of technology on maritime doctrine in the 21st century and the role of sea power in a state's grand strategy.

Sidharth holds a doctorate in International Relations from the London School of Economics, where his research examined the ways in which strategic culture shapes the contours of a nation's grand strategy.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 13 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Military Peacekeeping Mediation: A First-Hand Account from Mali

Lt. Gen. (ret.) Dr Dennis Gyllensporre, Swedish Defence University and CCW Visiting Fellow

Abstract will be posted shortly.

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Dr Dennis Gyllensporre is an Associate Professor in Security Policy and Strategy at the Swedish Defence University and an Associate Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. He also holds office as the Vice President of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences. Gyllensporre has 38 years of service in the Swedish Armed Forces. In October 2021, he completed three years of service as the Force Commander for the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). He came from a four-year appointment as the Chief of Defence Staff (VCDS in UK terminology) and Director of Special Forces of the Swedish Armed Forces. He was promoted to Lieutenant General in 2014. Gyllensporre has multifaceted credentials in international cooperation and an extensive track record in interaction with political entities. This experience spans from operations at the tactical level to scientific work in renowned journals. He was appointed the military expert to the parliamentary Defence Commission for five years. Gyllensporre has served as a staff officer in various positions, including tours abroad in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Sudan, and served as a military advisor in international crisis management at the MoD. He has also been assigned as chief of staff at the Swedish Joint Operations Command and later as head of the Doctrine and Concepts Branch at the European Union Military Staff. In 2008 he was deployed to Afghanistan as the Chief of Staff at Regional Command North of the NATO-led operation (ISAF). Subsequently, Gyllensporre has held several positions in the Swedish Armed Forces Headquarters, including Chief of Staff of the Supreme Commanders staff and Head of the Policy and Plans department. He has studied at numerous military institutions and holds several academic degrees, including a Master of Science in Computer Science (Royal National Institute of Technology, Sweden), Master of Business Administration (Warwick University, United Kingdom), Master of Military Arts and Science (USA Army Command and General Staff College), as well as a PhD in Policy Analysis and Governance (Maastricht University, the Netherlands). He is the author of several books and academic articles on military strategy and security studies.

He is a recipient of the Swedish Armed Forces Medal of Merit in gold for distinguished leadership during combat and war-like situations, the French Ordre national de la Légion d'honneur, the Chevalier de l'Ordre national du Mali, and the Dwight D. Eisenhower Award (2001) for academic achievements at U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. He was selected as the ‘Leader of Change 2022’ in Sweden for successful work as an adaptation manager. Gyllensporre is inaugurated to the Hall of Fame at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College (2017) and the U.S. National Defense University (2022).

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 6 February, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Defence-Economic Aspects of the War in Ukraine: Russia War Economy, Economic Warfare, and Economic Costs

Professor Christopher Davis, Oxford Institute of Population Aging

The evolution and outcomes of the armed conflicts in Ukraine over the period 2014-2024 have been strongly influenced by ideological, political, and military factors. However, defence-economic developments in Russia, Ukraine, countries of the Anti-Russia Coalition (ARC), and other nations have become increasingly important since February 2022 because Russia’s ‘limited military operation’ has evolved into a major resource-intensive and attritional war that has required mobilisations of military personnel and of defence industry in the direct adversary countries and provision of large-scale military and financial support to Ukraine by the ARC. This talk will use concepts and empirical material to answer key questions concerning Russia’s economy and defence-industrial complex (DIC) and economic issues related the war in Ukraine during 20222-24. The key concepts are: (1) the Russian economic system (war economy) and the production of economic power, (2) priority protection mechanisms in the war economy, (3) the defence industrial complex and the generation of military power, (4) global and regional economic-military power balances, (5) relations between Russia and other countries (adversary, neutral, partner) and their economic impacts, (6) economic sanctions/warfare and countermeasures, and (7) economic costs of war to Russia, Ukraine, the ARC, and non-engaged countries (China, Global South).

Relevant Publications:

• Davis, C. (2024, Forthcoming) Defence-Economic Aspects of Russia’s Involvement in the War in Ukraine: Economic Systems, Defence Industrial Complexes, International Economic Relationships, Economic Warfare, and Economic Costs, Submitted to journal for review in January 2024.

• Davis, C. (2020, January) The Russian Defence Industry, 1980-2025: Systemic Change, Policies, Performance, and Prospects, Chapter in Keith Hartley (UK) and Jean Belin (France) The Economics of the Global Defence Industry (69-125), Taylor and France. ISBN: 978-1-138-60809-2
  [A pdf copy can be obtained from CCW upon individual request.]

• Davis, C. (2016) The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances, and Economic Sanctions, Post-Communist Economies, Open Access at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14631377.2016.1139301

• Davis, C. (2002) The Defence Sector in the Economy of a Declining Superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2000, Defence and Peace Economics, 13: 3, 145-177

Christopher Davis is an academic expert on the economies of Russia and East Europe, whose research has focused on the USSR/Russia and the topics of economics of health, demography (mortality trends, population ageing), industry, and defence economics. He obtained a B.A. in Applied Mathematics at Harvard University (1969) and a Ph.D. in Economics in 1980 at Cambridge University for a dissertation on The Economics of Health in the USSR. He has held tenured academic positions at the University of Birmingham (Centre for Russian and East European Studies, 1978-1991) and the University of Oxford (Economics and Area Studies/REES, 1991-2015). At present he is a Professorial Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. He has made over 50 academic research visits to the USSR and Russia during 1974-2020, including to Moscow State University as a doctoral student on the USA-USSR exchange for the 1976-77 academic year.

In the military/defence field, Christopher studied at Harvard on an NROTC scholarship and served as an officer in the US Navy during 1969-73, reaching the rank of Lieutenant. He commenced his academic research on defence economics in 1985 following an eight-month Ford Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship in National Security and Arms Control at MIT. He has produced over fifteen publications about the economics of defence in the USSR/Russia, including those shown below. Over the past six months he organized a large conference about the economics of the war in Ukraine, which was held at Wolfson College in December 2023.

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 30 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Nature

Paul Larcey, Princeton University

As our society confronts the impacts of globalization and global systemic risks—such as financial contagion, climate change, and epidemics—what can studies of the past tell us about our present and future? How Worlds Collapse offers case studies of societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity. The authors in this volume find commonalities between past civilizations and our current society, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision-making today. While today’s world presents unique challenges, many mechanisms, dynamics, and fundamental challenges to the foundations of civilization have been consistent throughout history—highlighting essential lessons for the future.

Paul A. Larcey is co-director of the PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research community at Princeton University. Larcey’s work with the UK’s innovation agency focuses on key emerging technologies including life sciences, quantum technologies, and AI. He has worked in corporate research, venture capital, and global industrial sectors at board and senior levels and studied engineering, materials science, and finance at London, Oxford, and Cambridge Universities.

You can buy ‘How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future’ here: https://www.routledge.com/How-Worlds-Collapse-What-History-Systems-and-Complexity-Can-Teach-Us/Centeno-Callahan-Larcey-Patterson/p/book/9781032363219 

 GSR also developed a MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) on global systemic risk, which can be found here: https://www.coursera.org/learn/global-systemic-risk? 

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 23 January, 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

(Re)shaping Ukrainian Identity Through Linguistic Choices During the Full-Scale Russo-Ukrainian War

Dr Iryna Halasa, West Ukrainian National University and KCL

Linguistic implications form vital insights for understanding the nature of war discourse. They also demonstrate ways in which language is manipulated in order to achieve definite goals.

The researcher will interpret President Zelenskyy’s Independence Day speech presented on August 24, 2023. It is analyzed from the perspective of critical discourse analysis. The research questions are: What function, if any, does the speech of Volodymyr Zelenskyi have on the Ukrainian audience? And what linguistic means, if any, does the Ukrainian President deliberately use to achieve his goals while interacting with the Ukrainians?

Taking into account V.Zelenskyy’s former career, discourse has always been an important tool to influence and manipulate the audience. Kvartal 95 humor, sarcasm and satire were the key means to reach the recipients before his presidential ambitions. And his political speeches in the role of the President became the main source of information and support to the Ukrainians during the full-scale invasion of Russia to Ukraine. In this study we make an attempt to demonstrate four main functions of the President’s speeches to the nation during Russo-Ukrainian war which include unifying, supportive/encouraging, sympathetic, and glorious functions. We also interpret his Independence Day speech from the perspective of personal pronouns usage. 

Iryna Halasa, PhD, Associate Professor at West Ukrainian National University, Ternopil, Ukraine. She is currently holding the British Academy Researchers at Risk Award and working on her research project as a visiting scholar at King’s College London, UK. She obtained her PhD from Ivan Franko National University of L’viv in 2011. Her professional development is confirmed by numerous internships in such countries as the USA, the UK, Sweden, Hungary, Poland and others. Harvard University scholarship represents one of the most important achievements of the researcher. Iryna Halasa’s research interests include peculiarities of political discourse functioning and Russo-Ukrainian war vocabulary interpretation.  

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 16 January 13.30
Old Library, All Souls

Welding Alliances: How Allied Warship Production Could Transform the Indo-Pacific

Cdr. Doug Robb

U.S. Navy surface ships are deployed around the world in strategically important waters.  Their presence matters in the increasingly complex maritime domain and yet, despite unprecedented congressional support for shipbuilding, the U.S. defence industrial base cannot keep up with demand.  At the same time, the U.S. is exploring new ways to deepen cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific to strengthen regional collective security and deter potential conflict.  A collaborative warship construction program may succeed in achieving those aims.

Commander Douglas Robb is the Academic Year 2023-2024 U.S. Navy Hudson Fellow at St. Antony’s College and a visiting research fellow in the Changing Character of War Centre at Pembroke College.  His operational assignments have been in Pacific fleet-based guided missile destroyers, culminating most recently as commanding officer of USS Spruance (DDG 111), homeported in San Diego, California.  His staff assignments in Washington, DC include liaison to the U.S. House of Representatives in the Navy’s Office of Legislative Affairs; Tomahawk Missile and Surface Strike section head in the Navy Staff’s Surface Warfare Division (OPNAV N96); and speechwriter for the Navy’s four-star uniformed leader, the Chief of Naval Operations. Current research interests include ways to strengthen naval power, including how allied capabilities may be used to overcome domestic constraints.    

Seminars at 13.30, Old Library, All Souls
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 28 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Cyber capacity and strategic advantage: resilience, influence, and control

Julia Carver, Oxford

Julia Carver is a DPhil candidate in International Relations at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. Her work explores cyber-foreign policymaking and strategic thinking in the current era of great power competition, particularly the relationship between digital infrastructure, capacity building, and strategic advantage. In 2021, she founded the Changing Character of War Centre’s Cyber Strategy and Information Operations Working Group, and she currently holds a stipendiary lectureship in Politics at Magdalen College (Oxford). Her research is jointly funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and Nuffield College.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 21 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Cyber Deception

Rob Black, Wilton Park & Cranfield University

It is necessary to consider how the virtual age has changed the battleground for all of us, how the virtual domain and cyberspace can shape our understanding of what is happening and, resultantly, our behaviours, whoever we are. In recognising this, we can appreciate that a new way of defending our networks is required, where we move away from a passive assurance mindset, but instead look to ‘fight’ our cyber attackers with the only means we have in the Virtual Domain – We need to encourage more consideration of human sciences and an improved applied understanding of our target’s decision making so as to offer actionable insight to help deploy more effective cyber defence tactics as a force multiplier to the technological solutions currently being offered by vendors and utilised in cyber defence. Adopting a proactive cyber defence strategy which is focused on the behaviour and decision making components of our attackers and not just the technical capabilities becomes key.

The lecture will explore why cyberspace is different, and how humans can be exploited through cyberspace, what does this mean for how we operate in cyberspace and, more importantly, it will showcase why it is necessary to move on from a detection focused defence strategy to a proactive cyber defence strategy which has Deception at the heart of it. It will finish with a few novel suggestions of how we might take the ‘fight’ to the cyber attacker inside our networks.

Rob Black has worked in the field of Influence and Information Operations since 2003. As a Lecturer in Information Activities at Cranfield University, he leads a series of modules on the UK MoD’s MSc in Cyberspace Operations, as well as supporting the UK Defence Cyber School in educating senior MoD Leaders about Warfare in the Information Age. Rob is currently an Associate Programme Director at Wilton Park, where he helps enable policy shaping dialogue on issues at the heart of the UK government's interests. His current programme focuses on defence and national security, cyber, intelligence and warfare.

Formerly he was the Deputy Director of the National Cyber Deception Laboratory and previously Rob was responsible for building and developing Cyber Influence Capabilities for the UK MoD and was involved in operational planning and delivery of cyber operations in support of the UK government’s and her international partners cyber operations. Rob studied Law and a Masters in International Peace and Security (International Law and International Relations at Kings College London.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 14 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Economics and National Security

Dr Jason Shepherd

There is a resurgence in interest in economic statecraft and economic security. This is against a backdrop in which, over the last thirty or so years, economics has been regarded as above and beyond national control and best left untouched by governments; and national security has been lionised for its performance and practice, rather than its impact. What are the connections between the economy and national security, and how might we begin to raise a new generation of security practitioners with the skills to operate in this re-emerging field?

Dr Jason Shepherd is the Senior Director for Strategy at Thomson Reuters Special Services International. He joined Thomson Reuters in 2021 after a twenty-three-year career in the UK national security community, during which he contributed to interoperability both between the FVEY partners and the UK agencies and government departments.

A graduate of Cambridge, his PhD in Molecular Genetics was awarded by the University of Edinburgh, but it was his experience of the Executive Master’s in Public Policy at LSE that convinced him of the importance of the economy and political institutions to national security. An influential member of the 2020 Integrated Review team, he continues to champion technical innovation and excellence in the pursuit of public good, and is a proponent of public-private partnership in security and intelligence. He is an advocate, and whenever possible practitioner, of systems thinking and systems engineering.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 7 November, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

The Pendulum of War: Lanchester Models of Combat

Dr Stephen Coulson

This session examines the use of Lanchester’s equations for combat modelling. Originally conceived by the aeronautical and automotive engineer Dr Frederick W. Lanchester in 1914, prior to the outbreak of the First World War, to predict the outcome of arial combat, the power laws Lanchester derived from his equations have been widely used to understand the dynamics of many different types of combat. The session reviews Lanchester’s equations and how they became fundamental to the development of military operational research by both the UK and the US during the Second World War. The continued relevance of Lanchester models to understand combat on the modern battlefield is shown through some insights into current research using Lanchester’s approach, which suggest that metaphors of the pendulum of war may actually rest on a mathematical foundation.   

 Stephen has been a Research Fellow at CCW since 2016. Originally a Visiting Fellow, sponsored by the Land Intelligence Fusion Centre (LIFC) studying the value of intelligence to decision makers, his research has broadened to include combat modelling, wargaming and high-level tactical warfare. Previously a diplomat with the Foreign Office and the Operations Research Director for a UK defence company, Stephen has applied mathematical modelling to numerous real-world problems.        

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 31 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

When Does the Great Game End? Long Term Geostrategic Trajectories of the Russian War Against Ukraine

Dr Rob Johnson

This session examines the future direction of the Russian invasion of Ukraine from a strategic point of view. It draws on conceptual tools to understand the character of this conflict but also ways to analyse future challenges and geostrategic consequences. The session makes use of history, concepts, and strategic analysis techniques. It is does not concentrate on the tactical analyses which currently dominate the media and defence analytical community, but instead focusses on the global reactions over the longer term and offer context to current and likely future trajectories. The session will offer some insight into the UK's leading role in its support for Ukraine and the 'inside view' of the UK government. 

Dr Rob Johnson is the Director of the newly established Secretary of State’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC) at the Ministry of Defence.  He will return as Director of the Oxford Changing Character of War Centre in 2024.  He has advised and delivered direct support to government and armed forces in defence and security matters, including the United States, Europe and Australia.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 24 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Limited capacity - Now fully booked

Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits

Dr Rob Geist Pinfold, Durham University

From Ukraine to Afghanistan and beyond, occupations and exit dilemmas permeate contemporary geopolitics. However, the existing literature on territorial conflict rarely scrutinizes a pivotal, related question: what makes a state withdraw from an occupied territory, or entrench itself within it?
In Understanding Territorial Withdrawal, Rob Geist Pinfold addresses this research gap. He focuses primarily on Israel, a unique but important milieu that offers pertinent lessons for other states facing similar policy problems. As Pinfold demonstrates, occupiers choose to either perpetuate or abandon an occupation because of three factors: their relations with the occupied, interactions with third parties, and the occupier's domestic politics. He argues that each withdrawal is the culmination of a gradual process of policy re-assessment. Critically, it is a combination of local violence and international pressure that causes popular and elite opinion within the occupier to endorse an exit, rather than perpetuate the status quo. To affirm this pattern, Pinfold constructs a generalizable framework for understanding territorial withdrawal. He then applies this framework to multiple case studies, which include: Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula between 1974-1982; its "unilateral" withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000; and its "unilateral disengagement" from the Gaza Strip in 2005, as well as Israel's non-withdrawals from the West Bank and Golan Heights. Overall, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal delineates commonalities that manifested in each exit yet were absent in the cases of occupation without exit.

Dr Rob Geist Pinfold is a Lecturer in International Peace and Security at Durham University’s School of Government and International Affairs. Alongside his role at Durham, he is a Research Fellow at the Peace Research Center Prague and Kings College London’s Centre for Grand Strategy and is a Senior Fellow at Charles University's Herzl Center for Israel Studies. Rob is a scholar of international security whose research intersects the study of strategy and territorial conflict. His work has been published in International Studies Perspectives, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism and Mediterranean Politics. His full-length book manuscript, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits, was published by Oxford University Press in 2023. 

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 17 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Thanks for your Service:  The Causes & Consequences of Public Confidence in the US Military 

Professor Peter Feaver, Duke University

What explains the high levels of public confidence in the US military and does high confidence matter? In Thanks for Your Service, the eminent civil-military relations scholar Peter D. Feaver addresses this question and focuses on what it means for the military. Proprietary survey data show that confidence is partly based on public beliefs about the military's high competence, adherence to high professional ethics, and a determination to stand apart from the bitter divisions of partisan politics. However, as Feaver argues, confidence is also shaped by a partisan gap and by social desirability bias, the idea that some individuals express confidence in the military because they believe that is the socially approved attitude to hold. Not only does Feaver help us understand how and why the public has confidence in the military, but he also exposes problems that policymakers need to be aware of. Specifically, this book traces how confidence in the institution shapes public attitudes on the use of force and may not always reinforce best practices in democratic civil-military relations.

Peter D. Feaver is a Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at Duke University. He is Director of the Duke Program in American Grand Strategy and co-PI of the America in the World Consortium. Feaver is also the author of Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations (2003) and Guarding the Guardians: Civilian Control of Nuclear Weapons in the United States (1992). He is co-author of Paying the Human Costs of War (with Christopher Gelpi and Jason Reifler, 2009); Getting the Best Out of College (with Susan Wasiolek and Anne Crossman, 2008, 2nd edition 2012); and Choosing Your Battles: American Civil-Military Relations and the Use of Force (with Christopher Gelpi, 2004). He has published numerous other monographs, scholarly articles, book chapters, and policy pieces on grand strategy, American foreign policy, public opinion, nuclear proliferation, civil-military relations, and cybersecurity. Feaver served on the NSC staff in both the Clinton (as a Director for Defense Policy and Arms Control, 1993-1994) and Bush (as Special Advisor for Strategic Planning and Institutional Reform, 2005-2007) administrations. He is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 10 October, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building

Contemporary Mental Health and Illness in the UKAF

Surg. Cdr. Charlotte Evans, CCW & Royal Navy

Mental health is a ‘hot topic’ for the UK Armed Forces and country it serves. There is concern over the effect of service on military personnel and misunderstanding about the realities of mental health and mental illness and its’ treatment. Both the realities and the ‘rumour’ have impact on the UKAF at a variety of levels – tactical, operational and strategic. What are these impacts and what is being done to mitigate them now and if the Cognitive domain is the next theatre of warfare, what might we need to know, re-learn and innovate? 

Surgeon Commander Charlotte Evans is the Royal Navy Hudson Fellow and a Visiting Research Fellow with CCW. Until recently she was the Consultant Advisor in Psychiatry to the Head of Royal Navy Healthcare. She was assigned to deliver subject matter expertise in her clinical role as a consultant psychiatrist, alongside non-clinical support and advice on the wider aspects of mental health and illness through strategic, operational and tactical levels. She has delivered particular emphasis on provision of support in the maritime operational space, and training personnel to support good mental health in their people to enhance operational capability. 

Early career highlights have included operational deployments as a General Duties Medical Officer on RFA LARGS BAY and HMS MONTROSE and RICHMOND, predominantly conducting disaster relief planning and training, and counter-piracy activity off the East coast of Africa. She has also conducted deployed mental health research and completed her MSc in Evidence Based Healthcare through the University of Oxford alongside her clinical training. Her dissertation focussed on the occupational outcomes for military mental health patients.

Current research interests: the role of mental health in the moral component of warfighting, whether traditional understanding of military operational mental health delivery meets current demands, and what psychiatry may have to offer in defence against cognitive warfare.

Seminars at 13.00, Seminar Room E, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.

Tuesday 13 June, 13.00. Sandwiches served from 12.40.
Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building

Black Swans: do we have the culture (and will) to adapt rapidly to unforeseen and potentially catastrophic events?

Dr Kevin Rowlands

In 2012 the MoD Developments, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) produced a concept note entitled Black Swan.  It proposed a different approach to 21st century naval warfare involving crewed and uncrewed vessels acting together as an integrated system.  It seems prescient now, even mainstream, but a decade ago the concept did not fit with the existing narrative and fell on deaf ears, ultimately falling victim to a concerted campaign to undermine its validity.  How many more Black Swans have been ignored or buried over the years, and are we today more able to broaden our thinking, take challenging, bold ideas and run with them?  Or will vested interests always win the day?

Dr Kevin Rowlands is the Head of the Royal Navy’s Strategic Studies Centre, an internal Ministry of Defence think tank which aims to inform senior policy and strategy decision makers. He enjoyed a thirty-year naval career, of which twenty were at sea, and left in the rank of Captain. He has been the Secretary to the Chiefs of Staff Committee and other senior Ministry of Defence boards and committees, and was the Course Director for the United Kingdom’s Advanced Command and Staff Course. Kevin holds a PhD in War Studies from King’s College, London, and master’s degrees in defence studies and in education.

Seminars at 13.00, Lecture Theatre, Manor Road Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
All are welcome, no need to book.